NFL Best Bet Sunday Games (1/5/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 4, 2024 | 11:15 P.M. CST
Best Bet: 2-Team, 6 Point Teaser (Chargers -.5 | Seahawks -1)
Week 18 in the modern day NFL is all about identifying which teams are motivated to win and which teams are not. Sometimes it’s simple, where teams are sitting their starters. Other times, you have to identify whether teams are going to try to win when it’s actually advantageous for them to lose.
Chargers -6.5 to -.5 vs Raiders: Yes, the Chargers have already clinched a playoff birth heading into the final week. However, with the results of the Bengals/Steelers game in, we now know EXACTLY what the Chargers are playing for. If Los Angeles LOSES to the Raiders tomorrow, the Chargers will fall to the 6 seed, which means they would be going on the road to Baltimore to play the AFC North Champion Ravens. Keep in mind, the Chargers already played the Ravens once this year, and it was all Baltimore (and that game was in L.A.) On the other hand, if the Chargers win tomorrow, they will be locked into the #5 seed, which would in turn send them to HOUSTON to play the Texans. The Texans have been in a landslide the past month, with CJ Stroud continuing to struggle, along with serious health concerns on both the OL and in the wide receiver room. Basically, my point is that playing the Texans indoors, compared to playing at Baltimore in cold weather for a west coast team is a MASSIVE difference. So the Chargers will be very motivated here. On the other hand, it’s possible Antonio Pierce knows he’s fired, in which case he will be trying to win this game for his guys. However, the Raiders have no trouble losing games they’re trying to win. They lost 10-straight during the season, and their only wins in the past 14 weeks came against Mac Jones and the 4-win Jaguars and Spencer Rattler who lost every game he’s started for the Saints (0-6). So even if the Raiders come in motivated to win here (which they SHOULD NOT BE because it hurts their draft position), they just don’t have enough to compete with a locked in Chargers team, who’s playing for something. I thought this line was too low.
Seahawks -7 to -1 @ Rams: The Seahawks have nothing to play for in terms of playoff positioning, and the Rams do. With a loss and a Bucs win (TB is a 13 point favorite tomorrow vs. Saints), the Rams would drop to the #4 seed and would square off with the loser of the Vikings/Lions Sunday Night matchup. Meaning, a loss could result in playing a 14-win team rather than a 10 or 11 win team. Still the Rams will be sitting all their major offensive weapons in this game, including starting QB Matthew Stafford. Jimmy G will be getting the nod at QB. Now Seattle has plenty of incentives to fill, which is partially why I like the Seahawks here. Geno Smith, particularly, has a shot to make up to six million bucks in bonuses; and, one of those bonuses is a 2 million dollar bump for winning 10-games. So Geno has every incentive in the world to go out and play his best game of the season, even though they have no shot at the post-season. It also gives head coach Mike McDonald a chance to get to 10-wins in his first season as head coach in Seattle. Although making the playoffs was likely his goal, 10-wins in the NFL in your first year is without a doubt a success. With that motivation and the Rams sitting the majority of their key guys, I don’t see how LA wins this game. It would take significant give up by that Seattle defense. I like the Seahawks here so that’s leg 2
Official Pick: Chargers -.5 | Seahawks -1 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
