NFL Playoff Best Bets: Round 1 (1/11/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 11, 2025 | 12:02 A.M. CST
Best Bet 2-Team, 6.5 Point Teaser: Baltimore Ravens -3 & Buffalo Bills -3
I don’t normally like giving out a -120 bet unless I feel there’s a significant edge (obviously you have to pick at a higher rate at 20% juice). However, I think this is the best bet on the board in round 1 that’s going to be a legitimate non-sweat. Let’s dive into each of the two picks:
Ravens -3 vs. Steelers:
Let’s start with the Baltimore Ravens. Look the Pittsburgh Steelers have been REELING down the stretch. My favorite thing is to bet is when my in-season projections from weeks prior align with a pick that I like currently; when I get that combo it usually bodes very well. Back-to-back wins over the Bengals & Browns put the Steelers at 10-3, but it was clear that this Steelers team was much worse than their record indicated. Not only had Pittsburgh won multiple games that they did not deserve to win, but their supposedly ELITE defense got shredded by the Joe Burrow & the Bengals. The next game that same defense gave up 300 yards to the Browns and Jameis Winston and only won the game by margin due to Famous Jameis turnovers.
Looking at their last four games I predicted the Steelers would finish the season 0-4, MAYBE 1-3. And that’s exactly what they did. They lost 4 consecutive games to end the regular season. The defense looked average in those 4 games and the offense looked putrid, especially with George Pickens out. Even with Pickens back, in a MUST WIN game to avoid dropping from the 5 seed to the 6 seed (difference between going to Houston and going to Baltimore) playing against arguably the WORST defense in the league in the Cincinnati Bengals, AT HOME, that same Steelers offense mustered just 17 points. And honestly, 17 points gives them more credit than they deserve. The Steelers finished the game at 3.4 yards per pass, 3.2 yards per rush, and a horrific 3.3 yards per play. It was a spot that if you have an offense they WILL show up, and they didn’t.
Then you look at the fact that the Steelers also PLAYED the Ravens in one of their four final games. That was a game that if Pittsburgh won they controlled the division and a path to a home playoff game. The Ravens won by 17 points. They outgained the Steelers by over 100 total yards, and by 1.5 yards per play. That vaunted Steeler’s defense allowed Lamar Jackson and company to average nearly 7 yards per play in not great weather. And, it was a balanced attack.
While the Steelers finished the season with 4 consecutive losses, the Ravens finished with 4 consecutive wins. These are two teams headed in complete opposite directions. But what really impressed me the last 4 games was the Baltimore Ravens defense. This was a secondary that was NOT GOOD for most of the season, despite having an elite run defense. And yet the final 4 games the Ravens were awesome on the defensive side. As a whole, they gave up less than 11 points per game the last 4 outings. Now, they did play some of the bottom offenses in the league, but you have to take into account that offenses like that we’re torching this Ravens secondary early in the season. AND, you have to take into account that this Pittsburgh offense IS ALSO A BOTTOM OFFENSE. Even if the Ravens were to revert back to some of their previous woes, I’m not sure this Steelers offense has the ability to take advantage of it. Even in the first matchup in Pittsburgh earlier this season, a matchup won by the Steelers (18-16), Pittsburgh averaged just 4.1 yards per play and they were outgained by the Ravens by 2.0 yards per play. Russell Wilson threw for just 205 yards and a INT, zero TDs. They won the game due to Ravens mistakes (12 penalties and 3 TO’s). In my opinion, that’s the ONLY way the Steelers keep this REMOTELY close: the Ravens would have to have won of their worst offensive outings of the season, while the Steelers would have to play one of their BEST. I just don’t see it happening. And that’s why we’re going to tease this to the key of 3.
Part 2: Bills -3 vs. Broncos
The Broncos are a great story this season. They had a bottom five defense in the NFL last season; we saw them give up 70 points to the Miami Dolphins early in the 2023 campaign. And through the first half of the year, they had become one of the leagues TOP defenses. You had the worst trade in NFL history, with Denver giving Russell Wilson that massive contract, and yet he was as bad as you could be last season. They get a rookie QB coming in, who nobody thought was any good, and he ends the year likely second in OROY voting. These things all contributed to the Broncos making the playoffs for the first team in a half decade. Great for Bo Nix, and Sean Payton, and all the Denver fans. Unfortunately their run will come to an end Sunday, as they get matched up with who I believe is the SB favorite in the Buffalo Bills
This Bills team is on an absolute mission this year. Josh Allen IS the MVP (and he WILL win the award). There’s been absolutely nobody better in the entire NFL this year. Allen has carried a team with no-name receivers (at least before they added Amari Cooper). But this Bills team is more than that. Joe Brady has developed a very balanced offense featuring James Cook out of the backfield, and mixing in lots of Josh Allen runs. And that’s all great, before adding in the home field advantage. This is by far the toughest place in the NFL to play when it comes playoff time. That place is going to be filled and absolutely rocking from the jump. The Bills were a perfect 8-0 at home this season, and they beat teams much better than the Denver Broncos.
Overall, it’s just an impossible spot for a rookie QB and an overachieving team. They may have had a shot against the Houston Texans. Possibly even the Baltimore Ravens if the weather held up and no Zay Flowers. But this Broncos team has no shot of keeping this close. I was considering laying the entire 9.5 but I believe for purposes of avoiding a backdoor sweat, we’re just going to make this leg two of the teaser and ride with the Bills -3.
Official Pick: Ravens -3 | Bills -3 (-120)
Play Rating: 2-Stars
