NBA Playoffs Best Bet (4/25/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | April 25, 2024 | 2:09 P.M. CST

Best Bet for Tonight:

Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -2 (1st Quarter) vs. New York Knicks (-105)

If you’ve noticed the bets during the playoffs, we’ve tended to stay away from straight spreads and totals and instead look to derivative markets, because the lines at this time of year are very sharp and well priced, that it can be difficult to get in at a good number. In the regular season, I would probably never look to a 1st quarter bet because they can be unpredictable, however I think we have a distinct edge looking at the 1st quarter in this matchup.

I think it’s pretty clear to anyone who has watched this series that the 76ers are a few plays away from being up 2-0 in this series. The first game, Phili led for the majority of the first three quarters before squandering the lead late in the game. That game still came down to the final few possessions, and it took Josh Hart making THREE triples in the fourth quarter for the Knicks to win (keep in mind Hart had been so bad from 3 lately that they were just leaving him wide open all night). Game two was even more disturbing if you are a Sixers fan, as they squandered a 5 point lead with under 30 seconds to play, and lost in regulation by 3. Thus, the Sixers come back home Thursday night down 0-2 in the series. All that said, I think it’s fair to say that the Sixers got quite unlucky with how games 1 & 2 played out. At the very least they deserved a split. Unfortunately for Phili, they ARE down 0-2, and for all intents & purposes this is a must win game for them. If the Sixers lose Thursday night, they might as well shut Embiid down and let Nick Nurse book his vacation to Cabo.

With all that in mind you have to believe the Sixers are going to come out focused on Thursday night in front of their home crowd. Not only is it a must win game, but it’s also their first home playoff game, and Philadelphia will be rocking. Every Sixers fan believes they can still win the series & we’re going to hear them on Thursday night. As I mentioned already, the Sixers are also coming off a devestating loss in their previous outing. For some teams you might think there could be a bit of a hangover effect, but I think this Sixers team is pretty mentally tough. You could hear it in both Maxey & Embiid’s voices after Game 2; they are itching to get back out there. So from a motivational & situational perspective I really like the Sixers to get a lead early.

Then you look at how the first two games in this series played out and you see that Philadelphia absolutely dominated the Knicks early on. They won the first quarters by 9 and 7 points, and those were both road games. And, the truth of the matter is that this is just a tough matchup for the Knicks. The length of Phili’s wings who have been guarding Brunson are really giving him trouble, as he’s shooting under 30% on the series from the floor and from beyond the arc. I don’t see that changing in this game. I think Phili is going to come out mad and focused and they will jump all over the Knicks the same way they did in the first two games in New York. So let’s go with the 76ers in the first quarter -2

Official Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -2 (1st Quarter), -105

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