NBA Playoffs Best Bet (4/23/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | April 23, 2024 | 5:35 P.M. CST
Best Bet In Pacers/Bucks Game:
So we’re going to look to the Pacers Team Total in the first half here. They went way under their season average in the first half against the Bucks in Game 1, so we’re expecting a bounce back here. The Pacers are the best offensive team in the league, and the Bucks have really struggled on the defensive end this season, and that includes most of the year WITH Giannis. I’m pretty certain Giannis is not going to play in game 2, and we’ve seen no indications up to this point to make us think otherwise. So just from a matchup perspective I like this one.
Then we look at Indiana’s last 20 games offensively in the first half of games. 15 of their last 20 they’ve gone over this total of 54.5 in the first half. Two of the five games that they failed to go over this total, they scored 54. So really we only have 3 games in which the Pacers were not all that close to reaching 55. Additionally in that span of their last 20 games, 11 of those games came on the road (and they play on the road tonight). In the 11 games they played on the road, they went over that total 9 times. One they didn’t, they still scored 53 (2 points shy) and the other came against one of the slowest pace teams in the league in the Orlando Magic (47 points in the first half). So we have a team that usually goes over this number, and goes over it on the road at an even higher pace than they do at home (at least in their recent games). In those 20 games they’re scoring an average of 63 PPG in the first half, which is 8 points over what we need here. Additionally, they are scoring 64 points per game in the first half on the road in that same span, so we’re gaining an additional point per game in road trips.
Lastly for this total, I do think the Pacers had issues with nerves early on. They shot an incredibly low percentage in the first half, and I do believe that is correlated with the fact that they have a lot of guys who are young and who have very little (or no) playoff experience. We saw them start to settle in during the second half offensively and play much better. Additionally, I would be concerned as a Pacers fan if they struggled against the Bucks in the regular season. If that were the case, you could make the argument this is just a bad matchup for the Pacers. However, that’s not the case. The Pacers actually beat the Bucks 4 of their 5 matchups during the regular season. Additionally, the Pacers went OVER this first half total in ALL 5 of their matchups with the Bucks in the regular season, averaging just under 63 PPG in the first half in those games.
So we’re going to go with ONE UNIT on the Pacers in the first half to go OVER their team total of 54.5. Now I want to add one thing. One thing I noticed in researching this game and this bet was that in those 5 games during their last 20 that the Pacers FAILED to eclipse 55 points, ALL 5 times they came back in the 3rd quarter and scored AT LEAST 29 points. Because of that I’m going to add a second bet CONTINGENT ON us NOT going over in the first half. If the Pacers fail to go over 54.5 points in the first half, then we are going to come back and take the Pacers to go OVER their 3rd quarter live total ONLY if it is 29 points or less (which I believe it will be). Even in game 1 when the Pacers failed to go over their first half total of 54.5 they still scored 29 on Milwaukee in the 3rd quarter.
So, in recap, we are going to go with ONE UNIT on the Pacers OVER 54.5 points in the first half. If they DO go over that number, then we’re done and we take our 1 unit profit. If they FAIL to go over that number and we LOSE the first half bet, then we’re going to take the Pacers OVER their 3rd quarter total ONLY if the number is 29 points or less. I believe we are going to see right at 28.5 which is fine. That said, if this number opens 29.5 do NOT take it. Just take the one unit loss and we will bounce back with our next couple bets. I believe we will win the first half bet easily, and I believe that they will go over their 3rd quarter total easily if we don’t win it. However, I don’t want anyone taking a bad number, and 29 is the key number for us in the 3rd quarter. That’s the exact number they’ve gotten to every time they have a low scoring first half. We’re not going to chase if we see 29.5 or 30. So that’s my best bet for the night. Best of luck and enjoy the game!!
OFFICIAL PICK: Pacers Team Total OVER 54.5 (1 Unit)
If it wins, we’re done
If it loses, we’re taking Pacers OVER Team Total in the 3rd quarter, provided the number is 29 or LESS (1 Unit)
