NBA Playoffs Best Bet (2/2/2024)
Author: Dylan Lieck | May 2, 2024 | 4:15 P.M. CST
Best Bet:
We’re going back to the well here with the Pacers Team Total OVER 55.5 in the first half. You can get it at reduced juice (-105) on Bovada right now. The juice has been moving all over the place so if you see it at -115 or -110, just wait and you should be able to get it to move to -105 and get a better price. Regardless I like the Pacers to bounce back in this spot in a big way.
They have essentially flip flopped in terms of three point shooting every game this series. Games 1, 3, & 5 they shot a piss poor percentage. Games 2 & 4 they shot over 40% and over 50% respectively. This is a team that is very high powered offensively and they tend to bounce back after a bad shooting night. Additionally, they are just much better at home. I talked about how often they went over this number in general last time we played them over the total (game 2). Additionally, if you look at the two home games in this series, the Pacers dropped 67 points in each home game in the first halves. The pace is up significantly at home, they play with more confidence, and they tend to shoot the ball better.
Additionally, I like that Dame Lillard is back for this game. Who knows what level of health he is at, but even if he’s close to 100% I think his presence bodes well for this team total for the Pacers. Lillard being ruled in means he’s going to play significant minutes, barring additional injury. Lillard is a below average defender. That also means less minutes for Patrick Beverly, who is still a very good defender. It lends itself to more points for sure, as well as a faster paced game.
Even if the Pacers don’t have a great shooting night (which I doubt) I still think they have a great chance to go over this number. So we’re riding with Indiana in the first half tonight. Take the Pacers Team Total OVER 55.5. Remember get the best number and find reduced juice because it’s out there.
Official Pick: Pacers Team Total OVER 55.5 (-105)
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