NBA Player Prop Best Bet Nuggets vs. Lakers (4/22/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | April 22, 2024 | 6:47 P.M. CST

I’m irritated I didn’t give out my early game play. I liked the Cavs in the first quarter against the Magic but decided not to give it out on the website. They won the first quarter comfortably. That said, here is my favorite bet of the night. It’s a player prop in the late game (Lakers/Nuggets)

Best Bet:

DeAngelo Russell OVER 16.5 Points (-114)

This line actually opened at 15.5. It got bet up from -110 all the way to -140. Then it finally flipped to 16.5 points. I don’t think the extra point matters. I’d actually prefer to have it at 16.5 with relatively low juice, compared to laying -130 or -140 at just a point less. Regardless, I think this is a fantastic play. Russell has had his struggles in the playoffs, especially against the Nuggets, and I’m not going to sit here and argue that he hasn’t. However, I trust numbers. And the numbers show that his volume is extremely high on this team; and, they show that he’s never had as good of a season (over the course of a full 82 games) as this one. Over the course of the 23-24 regular season, D-Lo shot a career high in terms of 3-point percentage. He went 1-9 in that first game against Denver. That’s not going to continue at that low of a rate. Especially because a lot of his looks were open shots. It’s not as if Denver is keying in on him. Those same shots are going to be there in game 2. Plus he will have an extra two days to adjust to the altitude.

I also especially like this because Russell took 20 shots in game 1. While I’m not sure he gets THAT volume game 2, it’s going to be in that realm (14-17 shots). And when you look at the rest of the Lakers role players, NOBODY has stepped up in the post-season. Ruri Hatchimora & Austin Reeves have both been absolute shells of themselves compared to last year in the playoffs. Gabe Vincent has been a complete non-factor. And Taurean Waller Prince is playing sparing minutes. So A lot of those shots that may normally go to those guys, are likely going to D-Lo. I think this is purely an efficiency issue. If D-Lo shoots remotely close (33%) to his season average from three, he goes over this easy.

OFFICIAL PICK: DeAngelo Russell OVER 16.5 Points

Units: 2