NBA Playoffs Round 2 Series Best Bet
Author: Dylan Lieck | May 5th, 2024 | 2:21 A.M. CST
Best Bet
Dallas Mavericks to Win Series +115 over OKC Thunder
The Mavericks come into this series off a big game 6 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers. Although the Clippers were without Kawhi Leonard for 4 of the 6 games in the series, it was still an impressive showing from the Mavs. They came into the series as a very small favorite (-115 to win series) & that was the price after it was already released that Kawhi was likely going to miss game 1. After dropping game 1 due to a terrible 1st half, the Mavs bounced back stealing game 2 on the Clippers home floor. In fact, this was the lone single digit win by the Mavs in this series (96-93). The Mavs trailed by 1 going into the 4th quarter, but outscored the Clips by 4 in the final period.
Following that win in game 2, Dallas dominated game 3 at home. They followed that up with a very poor performance early in game 4. However, despite getting down by as many as 30+ points, Dallas was able to fight back and actually take the lead in the final 2 minutes of the game. It took a couple of incredibly tough shots from Paul George and James Harden down the stretch just to keep the Clips alive in the series. The next two games were never close, as the Mavs basically led from start to finish. Thus, this series easily could’ve been over in 5 if Dallas could’ve closed out game 4.
The Thunder come into this series riding high with confidence after sweeping the New Orleans Pelicans in the first round, despite the fact that many felt the Pelicans had a shot to win the series if healthy. Fortunately for the Thunder, though, the Pel’s best player (Zion Williamson) was injured late in their first play-in game and did not play a single minute in round 1. The Pels were already an inferior team, and taking Zion away made this nearly impossible for New Orleans to win this series. Moreover, despite the Thunder winning games 2 and 3 relatively handedly, games 1 and 4 were a different story. In game 1, OKC trailed by 2 with under 2 minutes to go, and the Pelicans had the ball. The Thunder escaped with a 2 point victory as CJ McCollum missed a three at the buzzer that would’ve lifted New Orleans to a win. Game 4 was similar as the Pels led late in the game, before falling apart in the final 4 minutes.
Not only did the Thunder strongly benefit from the Pelicans missing their best player, but they also benefited from a couple of very fortunate breaks. Despite having one of the worst shot qualities of any winning team in round 1, the Thunder were able to shoot a high percentage in this series. Without a doubt, they are due for regression, it just wasn’t going to happen against a banged up, less talented team. This Mavs team is a different animal. They’ve been playing GREAT defense since the playoffs began. The Mavs are also a much tougher matchup for the Thunder. Willie Green inexplicably went to Jonas Valencunis for the majority of their big man minutes. His lack of athleticism made it really tough for the Pelicans to defend a Thunder team that has bigs who can stretch you out. They won’t be able to do that as easily to Derrick L.ively or Daniel Gafford.
If the Mavericks had home court advantage and no injuries in this series I would project them a 70% chance to win the series. Although I have downgraded for those two reasons (OKC has homecourt, and the Mavs lost Maxi Klieber), I still project the Mavericks to win the series 63% of the time, which means we are getting over 15% of value on this bet. I think with the reasons above, as well as the Mav’s experience advantage (Kyrie - NBA Champ, Luka - reached WC Finals). I love how Kyrie’s playing as well. Luka is a little banged up, but he’s going to have an extra 3 days to rest to get that knee feeling better. In all honesty Luka didn’t even play all that well for a large portion of that series against the Clips, so I expect a big bounce back for Doncic here in Round 2. So let’s take the Mavs and take that extra 15%, thank you very much.
Official Pick: Dallas Mavericks to WIN series over OKC Thunder (+115)
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