NBA 1st Round, Game 1 Best Bets (4/20/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | April 20, 2024 | 10:11 A.M. CST
Happy birthday Bob Marley! In his honor, here are my best plays for day one of the NBA Playoffs. We’ve got a loaded slate, with a quadruple header today and tomorrow. Enjoy the game and tail responsibly!
Best Bets:
1) Cavs -4.5 vs. Magic (2U):
The Magic have not beaten anyone with a pulse this season. They’ve thrived on beating the bottom feeders. This Cavs team isn’t incredible by any means, but they are the better of these two teams, and they have the best player on the floor in Donavan Mitchell. They also have the playoff experience that the Magic lack. This will be basically the first playoff game for almost everyone on this Magic team. The Cavs have Mitchell, Niang, & Struss, all with significant experience in the post season; and, those on the team who don’t have a TON of experience in this situation, still played in a tough series against the New York Knicks last season. Additionally, the Cavs have been a top 10 defense all year, however they struggled down the stretch due to injuries. They are definitely healthy at this point, but even if their struggles continue for the first few games, the place they have the most trouble is defending the three point line. The Magic are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA, at just over 35%. So I don’t see them exploiting the Cavs weaknesses here. There’s a reason this series price is -200 for the Cavs, one of the highest favorites on the board. And we’re laying a relatively short number in game 1 at home. We’ll take the Cavs here and expect a low scoring output from the Magic. I thought about taking this game first half due to the fact that the Magic are going to likely come out with some nerves. But I just think there’s very little chance Cleveland loses this outright. So just in case, let’s take full game, although 1H would be a good play too.
OFFICIAL PICK: Cavs -4.5
2) Knicks -3 vs. 76ers (2U)
All the Knicks have heard for a week is how vulnerable they are as a #2 seed and how they have no shot to go deep in the playoffs after losing Randle. I think talking heads are forgetting how terrible Julius Randle has performed in the playoffs with New York (or with anyone for that matter). He’s just been AWFUL. The addition of Divincinzo has been massive for the Knicks, as they actually have another consistent scoring option in the backcourt (who can also SHOOT the ball). The 76ers on the other hand, were very fortunate to get out of that first play in game against the Heat, trailing for the entire game til the fourth quarter. It took a crazy effort from Nicholas Batum to get the Sixers to the 7 seed. Additionally, the thing that the 76ers really struggled with in that game was the Heat defense. They went zone for stretches and gave them absolute fits. The Sixers don’t have the defense to keep up with a team who can score if they go in long droughts. The Knicks are the best defensive team in the NBA. I just think this is a bad matchup for the 76ers. I also strongly question the health of Embiid. He did not look close to 100% in that play-in game. Yes, he will still be effective, but the Knicks have some long, athletic bigs that could give him some trouble, the way Bam did in stretches. Plus the Knicks are coming in as the more rested team, and the Sixers played a very emotional up and down game in their last matchup, and now have to travel on the road. I got this at 3. It’s moved to 3.5 in most spots. Shop around and try to find the best number but we’re rolling with Brunsen and company, who I believe is the BEST player on the floor in this series with a hobbled Embiid.
OFFICIAL PICK: Knicks -3
3) T-Wolves -115 vs. Suns (1U)
The Suns have become a really trendy pick to beat the #3 seed T-Wolves in this series. I get the thought process, considering the regular season matchups between these two teams. The Suns were 3-0 SU against the T-Wolves, covering all 3 games and winning each by double digits. That includes a win over Minnesota the final game of the regular season in Minnesota, where the Suns absolutely DOMINATED the Wolves from start to finish to seal that 6 seed and lock up a re-match with that same Minnesota team. The series price for this one favors the Suns slightly, but I do think that is a bit of public money, as the Suns are the MOST public team in this first round. From a matchup perspective, it isn’t great for the Wolves. Why? Because they have Rudy Gobert, one of the NBA’s worst playoff performers. He causes multiple matchup issues for his own team due to his inability to guard the perimeter, switch, or play any sort of ball screen defense other than drop coverage. That said I think it’ll take Phoenix a game or two to adjust and start to really exploit it. We just have to win game one. And the thing is, Minnesota KNOWS they’ve got to get this first one to have a shot in this series. They cannot drop game 1 at home, knowing they have been dominated by this team all year. They are going to be ultra focused on this one. Lay the moneyline and don’t mess with the points. I found a -115, but shop for the best number.
OFFICIAL PICK: T-Wolves -115
