National Championship Best Bets (4/8/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | April 8, 2024 | 6:53 P.M. CST

Well we already have a nice little future on Tristen Newton at +550 to win the Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four. The first game he had a solid night, even though he didn’t shoot the ball all that well. He still finished the game with 12 points and most importantly 9 assists. That is really going to give him a shot in the title. I also like that the guy who had the best night for UConn in the semis was Stephon Castle. Castle is a freshman and it’s really tough for guys that young to perform consistently on this stage. Not to mention that he doesn’t play the minutes Newton does, nor does he have the ball in his hands as much as Newton. Clingan was pretty good, but not incredible, and that’s all we needed because the play all along was basically fading Clingan, knowing he was going up against Zach Edey in the Title. If you look at the odds right now, Newton is down to +500. If you happened to miss that future, I would strongly suggest taking it now, as there’s still a ton of value. This is absolutely mispriced, and with how even the performances were in game one, Newton is the most likely guy to have a big game tonight and win the award.

Best Bet For Tonight’s Game:

I posted this play on twitter already and gave it out in my breakdown video at the end. If you want to go check out my full game breakdown and see specifically why I like this pick, check out our channel on YouTube: @slobberknockersports

But the play I like is Purdue Team Total Under 70.5. Full disclosure when I gave that play out yesterday, the number was already trending down. It’s now 69.5 at most spots and I even saw some 68.5. Look I would take it as low as 68.5. I could even make a case at 67.5 but obviously try to get the best number. 69.5 or larger is a phenomenal bet. 68.5 is still solid. This number is way off with what we’ve seen from UConn’s defense in this tournament. They just held Bama, one of the fastest, highest scoring teams in the nation, to just 72 two nights ago. And most importantly of all is this pace is going to be very slow. Purdue is going to pound it inside to Edey, and UConn is going to play him straight up with Clingan. The game is going to very likely be played in the 63-68 possession range. Purdue would have to be extremely efficient against an amazing defense to get to this number. I see this lower scoring and I would be surprised if this is even close. Take Purdue Team Total UNDER 70.5 Play to 68.5.

Official Pick: PURDUE TEAM TOTAL UNDER 70.5

UNITS: 2