Best Bets For Final Four Games & Tournament Futures, Saturday (4/6/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | April 5, 2024 | 11:45 P.M. CST

Best Bet #1: NC State Team Total UNDER 68.5 (-110)

I think this is the best option for a bet on a team in either game in the two semi-finals games. Purdue has held opponents under this number in all 4 tournament games, and that includes games against two top 25 offenses in Tennessee (25th) and Gonzaga (5th). NC State has gone over the total 3 times in the tournament, however one game they did NOT go over in regulation; it took overtime against Oakland to get there. Additionally if you average out the two teams possessions so far in the tournament, this game is likely going to be played in the 65 range. If that holds true NC State would have to score over 1 point per possession to go over that total. With the matchup of Edey guarding DJ Burns (who is NC State’s highest usage player and most important offensive player) I don’t see NC State having a lot of success offensively over the course of a 40 minute game. I also like that Purdue is top 10 in the country in both ORB% and DRB% while NC State is outside the top 180 in both. That means more and longer possessions for Purdue and less time for NC State to score have possessions. NC State is also outside the top 180 in getting to the FT line and Purdue is top 10 in the country in sending opposing teams to the FT Line. So I don’t see NC State getting to this number. If you want a full breakdown check out our YouTube Channel: @slobberknockersports

Best Bet #2: Grant Nelson Over .5 three point field goals made (-171)
Overall I just like this one based on the matchup. I listened to Nate Oats’ press conference today and he talked about how Illinois was 0/19 at the rim against Donavan Clingan. He said that they definitely want to get rim shots but he also isn’t going to force against a shot blocker if he’s sitting at the rim. He discussed having to find ways to draw Clingan away from the basket to be able to get some three point shots. With that in mind, and considering that Bama already relies heavily on threes, I think Grant Nelson is our best bet to go above expectation from downtown in this game. He’s the only big man on Alabama who can really stretch Clingan away from the basket. If Pringle isn’t able to guard Clingan 1v1 it’s very unlikely Pringle is going to play significant minutes in this game. Nelson, on the other hand, I can see taking 4-5 threes in this game because of the matchup and because I think he’s going to play a TON of minutes as long as he doesn’t get in foul trouble. Even with the heavy juice, I like Nelson to go over 1 three here. Take him over half a three and lay the -171

Best Bet #3: Tristen Newton to win Most Outstanding Player +550

This number is just completely mispriced. Tristen Newton leads UCONN in scoring and assists, averaging over 15 and 6.5 per game. He’s also 2nd on the team in both rebounds and steals, and he’s had 3 triple doubles this season. 70% of Most Outstanding Player winners have been the leading scorer on their team throughout the season over the past 20 years. That includes last year’s UCONN team with Adama Sanogo. Guards traditionally dominate this tournament as well. The only true bigs to win the award in the past 15 years are Anthony Davis (Kentucky 2012) and last year Sanogo (UCONN 2023). Besides that it’s been all guards or wings. The two bigs for each top team (Edey and Clingan) are the two odds on favorites. UConn is going to be a 5 point favorite in that tile game AT LEAST. Probably closes closer to 6 or 6.5. If you believe UConn will win it’s going to be Clingan or Newton. Not only does Newton dominate statistically, but he also is going to play 38 minutes per game whereas Clingan will play 28-30. I’ll take that value ALL DAY

I wanted to get these things posted tonight before the end of the day so they will be up for a full day so I didn’t go in depth. Video breakdowns will be posted on YouTube by the end of the night tonight.