College Hoops Best Bet (1/29/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 29, 2025 | 4:33 P.M.
Overall Record: 24-10 (70.6%)
Best Bet Tonight: West Virginia +9.5 vs. Houston
This West Virginia team has had a rollercoaster season so far. They started off the year hot in the Battle 4 Atlantis, upsetting two top 25 teams in #24 Arizona and #3 Gonzaga. All signs pointed towards this team being a legitimate contender in the Big 12 at that point. Then their best player, Drake transfer Tucker Devries, went down with an injury (which is likely season ending). At that point, the Mountaineers season looked all but lost. However, after the loss of Devries, the Mountaineers rattled off 5 straight victories, including a 2-0 start to Big 12 play, and they went INTO Fogg Allen Fieldhouse and beat the #7 Jayhawks on the road. At that point, it felt like this WVU team would still be a force to be reckoned with in this conference, despite not having Devries. However, since that time they’re just 2-4, with one of those wins coming against Colorado, a team that is winless (0-9) in Big 12 play.
So why are we backing them here in this spot? Well, a couple of reasons. Number one, this team still has talent and they’ve shown they can play with some of the top teams in the country on a given night. In fact, they’ve really played up and down to the their competition a lot of this season. You look at that win at Kansas as one positive datapoint. But, then you see they also beat #2 Iowa State in Morgantown just three games ago. This team clearly still has fight left in them, and they’ve shown the ability to pull the big upset MULTIPLE times this season (4 wins over top 25 teams). Of their 4 upsets this season, 2 of them came as 6.5 point dogs (vs. ISU & vs. Arizona), one as a 13.5 point dog (@ Kansas), and one as a 15.5 point dog (vs. Gonzaga). So this team is no stranger to winning outright as a big underdog.
Then we look at the spot here. Houston is coming off one of the luckiest wins in the past decade in college basketball. The Cougars trialed by 6, at Kansas, with under a minute to play in regulation. It took Kansas taking a 5-second call with 15 seconds remaining (despite having two timeouts left), then FOULING away from the ball with 13 seconds left, and Houston’s Juwan Roberts making both free throws (despite being 54% on the season) just to force overtime. Then in overtime, the Jayhawks’ Dejuan Harris (83% FT shooter) was shooting 2 FTs, with KU up 6 with just 18 seconds remaining. He missed both FTs, Houston banged a deep three, stole the inbounds, and hit another three with 4 seconds left to tie the game. Kansas’ in game win probability in regulation was 98%. In overtime when shooting those two free throws, it was 99.9%. So you have the most emotional win you could possibly have, on the road, against your biggest competition in the conference. Now you have to play a second road game in a row, this time in Morgantown, against a team that has lost back-to-back games to inferior opponents, and 3 of their last 4 overall. It’s just a really poor spot for Houston, and a great spot for WVU.
Then you look at the matchup. Houston is the best defensive team in the country, metrically. That’s no surprise, as we tend to see that year in and year out according to KenPom. However, they are taking a West Virginia team that LOVES to shoot threes. They are top 30 in the country in percentage of FGs that are 3 pointers, as well as % of production coming from three pointers. Being heavily reliant on the three-ball really cranks up the variance, in terms of outcome of the game - if this team is hot from three, they significantly increase their chances of pulling a big upset, because we know they are going to take a ton of them. Additionally, as good as Houston is defensively, they are much better defending 2s than they are defending 3s. They are usually one of the top 5 perimeter defense teams in the country, however this season they’re 40th. That isn’t a bad spot to be, but it’s a farcry from where they’ve been the past half decade. And, if you watched the Kansas game this weekend, you can see why that’s the case. Houston gives up a ton more open looks from the perimeter than Cougar defenses of the past. I’ve seen this Houston team play multiple times, and from the eye test perspective, they just aren’t the same PERIMETER defense they usually are (which matches up with what the metrics show). I actually think they will finish even lower than they currently sit.
I expect this to be a low scoring, grinded out game, where both defenses play well, but West Virginia’s shooting from the perimeter keeps them in the game throughout. I truly believe the Mountaineers are a live dog here. We’re going to take the 9.5, but I want to sprinkle some on the ML as well, because if they get hot from three, there’s a real shot they win this one outright.
Official Pick: West Virginia +9.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
