College Hoops Best Bets (1/28/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 28, 2025 | 4:14 P.M. CST
CBB Overall Record: 23-9 (71.9%)
Best Bets Tonight:
1) Kentucky +10.5 @ Tennessee
I’m breaking two of my rules with this one. I’m taking a road team in conference play once students are back on campus, AND I’m taking a public underdog. However, I just think this is a really good spot for Kentucky. AND, Tennessee is not a team that should be laying double digit points to teams who can score it at a high clip (which Kentucky absolutely can).
Both of these teams come in on mini “rough patches”, although every team in the SEC is going to have rough patches this year. It’s the most brutal conference I’ve seen since the old Big East. Kentucky is just 3-4 in the SEC thus far, and they are coming off back to back losses. They also lost two of their last three road games, with both losses coming to unranked SEC teams, including their most recent outing Saturday afternoon to Vanderbilt. However, both those losses were to good teams. Georgia is going to be an NCAA tournament team when it’s all said and done, as Mike White has done a tremendous job there. Additionally, Vandy had already beaten Tennessee this year and as of today IS ranked in the Top 25 of the AP Poll. Tennessee on the other hand, is coming off a really tough loss at Auburn on Saturday night. It was one of the more physical, grinded out games I’ve seen all season. They come into this matchup 4-3 in SEC play.
Now, while Kentucky is playing their second straight road game, it’s not as though they are traveling cross-country here. They are going from Nashville to Knoxville, which is about a 3 hour drive. So the travel really isn’t tough for the Wildcats. Tennessee, on the other hand is coming off that extremely physical game with Auburn. And, while I don’t believe normally taking teams on road trips is a good idea, getting this Tennessee team after that physical of a game is a big bonus for Kentucky. I mean, I’ve seen boxing matches that were less physical than that game. Now the Vols have to take on a very high powered offensive team in Kentucky (much different than what they saw Saturday).
Moreover, this number is crazy. It opened 9.5 and got to 10.5. I was shocked at the move. I made this 5.5. I understand that teams going on the road in this conference are prone to get beat bad. But this Kentucky team can really score, and if this becomes a high scoring affair, I expect Kentucky to be a very live dog. On the other hand, if this becomes a slow, grinded out game (which favors Tennessee), now the Vols are having to cover a number as big as 10.5 in a game that’s played in the 50s or 60s? It just doesn’t make sense. This Tennessee team isn’t good enough offensively to lay this big of a number to any team that is in the top 15 in offensive efficiency. Kentucky comes in 4th in the nation in that category. They are top 50 in both 2FG% and 3FG% (57.0% & 36.9% respectively).
Overall, this number is too big, Kentucky is too good offensively, and it’s a bad spot for Tennessee against a UK team hungry for a win (after b2b losses). We’re riding with UK here plus a big number, despite the fact that they are a public dog.
Official Pick: Kentucky +10.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
2) Dayton -2.5 vs. St. Bonaventure
Speaking of teams who have fell on tough times, both of these programs started the year hot and have been in a rut as of late, with St. Bonaventure ESPECIALLY dipping as of late. The Bony’s started the season off hot as could be, winning 14 of their first 15 games. Their lone loss in the first half of the season came against a very good Utah State team on a neutral floor. However, since conference play tipped off, the Wolves have struggled. In fact, it’s one of the bigger drop off’s I’ve seen of any team this season in college basketball. The Wolves have now lost 3 consecutive games and 5 of their last 6, dropping to just 3-5 in A10 play. They’ve gone from a team that looked like they would surely get an At-Large bid to the NCAA tourney, to a team that is going to need to win the A10 tourney to have any shot of playing in March.
Dayton has not been all that great in A10 play either. When we first saw the Flyers on a big stage early this season at the Maui Invitational, they were upsetting UCONN and competing with Iowa State, one of the favorites to win the National Title this season (lost 89-84 in a very tight game). However, the Flyers are just 4-4 in their last 8 games, and they are just one game above .500 in conference play, sitting at 4-3. The main worst stretch of their season came with 3 consecutive losses to George Washington, UMASS, and George Mason. However, the Flyers have gotten back on track recently, ending that losing streak and putting together three straight wins.
Overall, looking at this matchup, you have two teams trending in opposite directions. Despite the rough 3 game stretch for the Flyers, Dayton has righted the ship, and they are back on the right track on this winning streak. Meanwhile, the Bonnies just cannot seem to figure it out on the offensive end. They are solid defensively, but they have really struggled to score against teams much worse than this Dayton group. In their current 3 game losing streak, they lost all three games by at least 13 points, and they have a negative point differential of 45 in those games.
While I only made this game Dayton -3 (and the line is 2.5) it feels as though this Bonnies team is mentally gone. They have lost their confidence, and they are not going to find it in a game against the most talented team in the A10 who is starting to figure it out. We’re going to roll with a second road team here tonight, and you’ll absolutely never see me take two road teams the rest of the season.
Official Pick: Dayton -2.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
