College Hoops Best Bet (1/30/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | January 30, 2025 | 7:39 A.M.

Best Bet: Nebraska +4.5 vs. Illinois

Man has this Nebraska program taken a step back this year. Last season Fred Hoiberg really had the Huskers trending in the right direction. After 3 straight losing seasons to start his tenure in Lincoln, Hoiberg won 16 games in year 4, finishing .500 (16-16) on the season. Then last year, Hoiberg led the Huskers to the an incredible year, as they finished 23-11, which was the most wins in a single season for a Nebraska team since 1990. They finished 3rd in the Big 10 & reached the NCAA tournament for the first time in over a decade. While this season started off very well, the Huskers have gone on a BIG losing streak. And, while 12-8 isn’t a disastrous start to the season, that along with 2-7 in the conference sure won’t get you to the NCAA tournament. And yet, we’re going to back them here tonight.

Even though the Huskers have lost seven straight, I still have found some positives when watching this team play. Hoiberg sure hasn’t lost the locker room, they just aren’t executing at the level they were early in the season. Now, they have shown they can play with some really good teams. They have wins on the road at a ranked Creighton team (one of the toughest spots to play in the country), at home over a top 15 UCLA team, and a neutral floor beatdown of Indiana. Even the road losses in conference don’t look bad: @ Michigan State, @ Purdue, @ Wisconsin - those are all games that most teams in the Big 10 WOULD lose. So, we know that this team plays hard, they have the ability to beat good teams, and they’re playing at home, where traditionally they’ve been very good (although they’ve lost two straight).

My issue with this number on Nebraska’s home court, is this: if Illinois was playing really good basketball, like they were early in the season, I would understand this getting bet up from 3.5 to 4.5. But to get to 4.5 in their current form? I just can’t get to that number. I make this Illinois -1.5. This Fighting Illini team has been trending down lately, just as Nebraska has. They’ve lost 3 of their last 5 and 2 of their last 3. That stretch includes a 21 point HOME loss to Maryland.

What makes this Illinois team so hot/cold is that they rely HEAVILY on the three-point shot. 47.6% of their TOTAL field goal attempts are threes (22nd in country), while 34.6% of their total production comes from the three point shot (103rd in country). Yet, despite shooting that many triples, they are a terrible three-point shooting team. They shoot below 32% from beyond the arc on the season; that’s 262nd in country, and that’s out of 364 teams. Because of this reliance beyond the arc, they often have to rely on their defense and on offensive rebounding to stay in games when their threes aren’t falling (which is usually). The problem with this matchup for Illinois is that Nebraska is excellent at keeping opposing teams off the offensive glass (top 60 in country, 27.4% ORB%). So, if Nebraska is able to keep the Fighting Illini off the glass (which I believe they will be able to), they should have a great shot to stay in this game. Additionally, the Illini defense has not been as good over the past couple games. Last time out, they took on Northwestern, who came into that game outside the top 80 in offensive efficiency (one of worst in Big 10) while also playing at one of the slowest paces in the country. And yet, NW was able to put up 74 on that Illini defense. The Wildcats hit a whopping 10 threes in that game, and shot 40% from three in the game. The Illini controlled the entire game, but it wasn’t because of elite defense. The two games prior to that outing, the Illini gave up 91 on their home floor and 80 on the road at Michigan State (who is far from an offensive juggernaut).

With all that said: the way the Illini defense is trending, the fact that they rely heavily on the offensive glass where Nebraska is great, and the fact that we’re CATCHING 4.5 points at home in a very tough venue to play (yes it’s become very good HC advantage in Lincoln) - we’re going to go with the home dog here. Plus, this really is Nebraska’s season. If they can’t get a quad one win here, and they drop to 2-8 in conference play, they can basically kiss the NCAA Tournament goodbye tonight. They MUST win this game to stay in the mix. They are far from out of the fight, but they know they will be SEVERELY wounded with a loss tonight. Meanwhile, while this Illinois team is struggling, they won’t have the same desperation tonight, on the road, taking on an unranked team who’s on a 6-game losing streak (and Illinois is still ranked in the top 20, and it’s wild what that number next to your name will do for you mentally).

Official Pick: Nebraska +4.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star