College Basketball Best Bets (Saturday, 3/2/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 2, 2024 | 2:51 A.M. CST
Here are my best bets that are on my personal card for this Saturday in college hoops.
Best Bets (2 Units Each):
1) Wisconsin -2.5 vs. Illinois: Fantastic spot for Wisconsin. I’m lower on the Badgers than anyone else in the country, but Illinois has not only struggled on the road, they’ve struggled to closeout games as well. They haven’t been playing their best ball of late. Granted, Wisconsin hasn’t played well as of late either, but they have still held serve at home ever game with the exception of the loss to Purdue a few weeks ago, which came by just 6 points. I’ll take the Badgers here.
2) Charlotte -2.5 or -3 vs. South Florida: Sell high spot on South Florida. The Bulls have been an amazing surprise this season, and it’s been fun to watch. But at some point there has to be a let down. They almost lost on the road at UTSA a few weeks back. They’re due for a loss and Charlotte is much better than people realize.
3) Creighton -4 vs. Marquette: Great spot for the Bluejays at home. They have been great at home all season. Marquette is 0-3 on the road against the top 5 teams in the Big East. They also have UCONN on deck on Wednesday. I’ll take Creighton laying the small number here in front of a ruckus crowd.
4) Northwestern -3 or -3.5 vs. Iowa: Call me a sucker on this one. The line opened 3.5 which is where I got it, and it’s down to 3 shockingly (only line move I got in front of opposite of the move). I do not understand how Iowa is taking money here. Northwestern is undefeated at home this season. I understand the Hawkeyes are playing much better basketball as of late; they beat Michigan State on the road a few games ago. But Ohio State also went into Sparty’s house and beat them on Sunday. I understand the matchup isn’t all that great for NW with Iowa being able to shoot it at a high clip, but there’s just too much value here to pass up. I make this game 5.5 and we’re only laying 3 in most spots at this point. KenPom makes this 4 and that’s with them significantly underrating NW’s HC advantage. Give me the Wildcats to win this one by double digits.
5) Alabama -2.5 vs. Tennessee: Tough spot for Tennessee off that massive win against a ranked Auburn team at home. The environment was the best I’ve seen in CBB this season. Now they have to go on the road to an Alabama team that has been great in Tuscaloosa all year. Bama’s defense has not been good, but the one thing they have done well is defend the three (Top 70 in country). Tennessee’s lone quality road win this season was at Kentucky, in a game where they made 12 threes, shot 60% from beyond the arc in the 1st half, and 40% from deep in the entire game. 5 players for UT have a 3-point percentage drop off of 5% or more from beyond the arc when playing on the road. As a team they shoot it at a bottom 200 clip from deep in true road environments. Unless the Vols significantly exceed expectations from beyond the arc in this one, or the officials decide to let the teams play extremely physical, I don’t see how Tennessee hangs with them. Too much to get up for another game of this magnitude, and they won’t have the home fans behind them to help will them to a victory.
Interesting Angles: (BET THESE AT YOUR OWN RISK: NOT official plays, and might be a few bucks in my small account on them, but will not be counted towards my record, win or lose)
Angle 1: South Carolina has led at halftime in 11 of their 15 conference games. They have led at halftime in 6 of their 7 home games in the SEC. They only game they trailed at halftime when playing at home in conference play was against Vandy (trailed by 4). That was likely a case of the Gamecocks overlooking the Commodores. In every other game they led at halftime. They are only laying 1.5 or 2 points (depending on the shop), so you can get them ML in the first half at -125 in a lot of spots. I think they will dictate the pace and get out to a lead early. This is just an angle I looked at that the numbers back up. Hard to make this officially a play, but it’s probably got a little bit of value just based on the short breakdown. I haven’t bet it myself, and it is NOT an official play.
Angle 2: Missouri is 0-14 in conference and they are laying 1 point against Ole Miss. Look I’m the king of betting ugly teams and this game has my name written all over it. But I don’t know if even I can get to the window on Mizzou. They’re last win came December 3rd, and they have not won a game in the year of 2024. That said, this seems like a classic Las Vegas “Wise Guys” line. The public is going to look at this and take Ole Miss without a doubt. And Ole Miss is definitely the more talented team. But Missouri has played quite a few close games this season, and they’ve come up on the losing end every time. This is probably their last legitimate shot to get a win in SEC play. Ole Miss is coming off another devastating loss that probably bounces them out of the NCAA Tourney. That seems to be built in the number here, because Missouri really has zero home court advantage other than the fact that Ole Miss is traveling. I don’t know. This feels a lot like the line last Saturday where UCLA was favored by 4 and it was coming down against a horrific USC team and USC won outright. I would not be shocked if Missouri got a win here. Just not sure I can bring myself to bet them.
