College Basketball Best Bet (2/29/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 29, 2024 | 8:55 P.M. CST
Note: Lost our play last night on Oki State -2.5. That was my first negative night in a long time, but we were absolutely due. It didn’t help that when we had a 12 point lead in the first half Oki State’s best player picked up a technical foul, which accounted for his 3rd personal foul. It also forced him out of the game for the next 9 minutes, and by the time Coach Boynton put him back in, the Cowboys were down 5. They went from up 12 to down 5 in that stretch (-17). That was really the difference in the game. The Knights also had a kid who had hit 4 threes all season knock down two big triples in the first half to keep them in the game when it looked like the Cowboys might run away. Overall, tough loss, but can’t win them all!! Let’s see if we can bounce back tonight.
Official Pick: Washington State -6.5 vs. USC
Quick Summary Below
I got this play at 6.5. It has moved to at least 7 at every spot, most spots are dealing 7.5, and I’ve even seen some 8’s out there. So we’ve seen consistent professional money on the Cougars from the time this line got released. My power rankings make this game 10.9. So when I saw 6.5, I had to do a double take. I really tried to play spoiler to myself, because when a game shows this big of a difference, there’s usually something up. I checked for major injuries, of which there were none. I checked the news reports and social media for both teams, and nothing was alarming there either. So I checked KenPom to see if it was just my numbers being off (I have Wazzu rated higher than most). But even KenPom made this game 10. I think Vegas must just rate this USC team higher than everyone else, purely based on the talent they have. But, at some point you just have to take into account the datapoints we have. And those datapoints clearly show that Washington State is the only option here.
Washington State has probably the second best home court advantage in the Pac 12. When that place is packed and rocking, they really have a great venue, and it’s not easy to go in there and win. I have to believe that with USC coming to town, which obviously includes Bronny James, and future NBA player Isaiah Collier, that gym will be packed, even though USC is not a top 25 team by any means. Usually a team with a losing record coming into this venue might indicate that we would not get a huge crowd. I think we’re going to though, with the Trojans coming to town. This is also the first home game for the Cougars in over 12 days. In that 12 day span they went on the road and upset #4 Arizona. I believe that win really spared this fan base, and I think they’re going to show out tonight.
Then you look at USC on the road. They’ve just been horrific. Yes they got the win over UCLA in their last outing, and yes they went into that game as a 4 point dog. UCLA is just so bad offensively, that USC was able to get out to a big enough lead to make it tough for the Bruins to comeback. But USC has been one of the worst road teams in the country overall. In fact going into that UCLA game the Trojans were as bad as you can get away from home, losing all 7 conference road games. Those 7 losses came by 31, 6, 15, 15, 10, 16, and 8. That’s an average margin of loss of 14.4 ppg, and 5 of the 7 losses coming by 10+. Even if you include the road win in their last outing at UCLA, the Trojans are a -95 on the road in Pac 12 play. They played only 2 non-conference road games, but it’s worth noting that their lone road win outside of PAC-12 play came against Alabama A&M. So, yes one could argue that USC is playing a little better as of late. But I’m more inclined to believe that they just got up to play their rival in UCLA last weekend, and had a good matchup with an offensively challenged team that could not exploit their porous defense.
Motivation: Last thing I want to mention is motivation. USC isn’t going to be playing in the post season, more than likely. None of these guys on USC really care though because the better ones are going to the NBA, and likely the ones who aren’t will be looking to transfer after Andy Einfield gets fired this off-season (assuming that will happen given his recent track record). This just doesn’t seem like a game that is all that meaningful to the Trojans. They just beat their rival, and they now go on the road to a team that is very businesslike. It isn’t like anyone is going to be watching this game late on a Thursday night. So I just don’t think these guys are going to be out there sacrificing for their teammates trying to beat Washington State. Meanwhile this game is extremely meaningful to the Cougars. If they are able to win out they will be the #1 seed in the PAC 12 tourney and will claim the final PAC-12 Regular season title ever. This would be a HUGE accomplishment for this team who was picked to finish in the bottom half of the conference. I also see a huge coaching mismatch here and I think Kyle Smith will have his guys focused and ready to go, following that poor performance at ASU last time out where they were upset on the road against a team with a losing record.
Official Pick: Washington State -6.5 (Play to -7)
