College Basketball Best Bet (3/4/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 4, 2024 | 5:25 P.M. CST

NOTE: No doubt we’ve had a rough couple of days, but as I said in my weekly brief in the midst of the 10-1 streak, it’s impossible to keep that up. I was due for a little bit of negative regression this weekend. Unfortunately it came all in one day. I will say, the bets we made if you look at the numbers we got when I gave out those plays, and where those numbers closed, the line moved favorably for us in 4 of the 5. And we gained a total of 8 points of CLV (Closing Line Value). So looking back at those picks, we got the best of the number there on 4 games. Creighton opened -4, closed -8.5 (-9 in some spots). We got Charlotte at 2.5/3, and it closed at -4.5. We got Wisconsin at -2.5 and it closed at -4. And we got Alabama -2.5 and it closed 4 (-120) in most spots. The only line that didn’t move in our favor was Northwestern, and that was a case of unfortunate luck as Ty Berry was supposed to go for the Wildcats and got ruled out last minute. But, we push forward and try to find some value this week as we head into conference tournaments and the last week of the regular season for most of the bigger conferences.

Pick for Tonight: I think the card is a little bit difficult to navigate tonight. I do have a few opinions on the smaller league games tonight, and one opinion on the big game of the night in the Big 12. But, I am actually going to go to a player prop here for my best bet and we’re going to look at that Big 12 game I mentioned.

So we’re going to look to Baylor/Texas, but we’re going to look at a less efficient market in the player props market. The thing about this time of year, is we’re going to get lines based on lots of data, and that can make it a little more difficult to find consistent good spots (because the lines are very accurate). But the college props market is one that is just not widely used by most bettors, and thus the market is not all that sharp.

So let’s look to Baylor Point Guard, Ray J Dennis OVER 6.5 assists (+106), and here’s why I like it. On the season, Dennis is averaging 6.7 Assists per game, which is why we see the number sit at 6.5. In conference play, that number is a bit higher at 6.93 Assists/Game. When we looking at his numbers, though, it seems to be going up in terms of his average as we get more recent. In the past 10 games Ray J is averaging 6.9 (right at his conference average). However we had one outlier in that stretch where he had just ONE assist at home against Iowa State. If you remove that contest, his average in the other 9 games goes up to 7.6 Assists per game. If you look at just his last 5 outings, he’s had 40 assists in the past 5 games, good for 8 Assists per game. And 9 per game in his last two outings. He also went over 6.5 assists in 4 of the last 5 games, 7 of his last 10, and 11 of his last 14.

Then we look at the games he did NOT go over that total in the past 14 games. One came against a Texas Tech team that isn’t very good defensively. However, the other two came against Houston and Iowa State, the two most aggressive, physical teams in the country. Also the two teams who play at the slowest pace, and limit possessions. Texas does neither of those things. In the first matchup with the Longhorns, Dennis had 8 assists in the contest. When we look at the matchup, we can see why. First off, one thing Dennis likes to do is post up against smaller guards. Well, Texas has one of the smallest guards in the country in Max Abmas. This is going to require Texas to provide some help for Abmas in these situations which frees up open cutters and shooters all around the court for Dennis to find. Secondly, we look at how Baylor likes to play. They are one of the more prolific 3-point shooting teams in the country, coming it 3rd nationally in 3 point percentage. They also rely on the 3-pointer for a large percentage of their points (33% of total points come from 3, which is good for top 100 in the country). Texas on the other hand, does a terrible job of defending the three point line (181st nationally defending 3s). So Baylor and RayJ should have plenty of opportunities to find shooters tonight to boost his assist total.

Overall, I think this is just a good matchup for Dennis. He plays close to 35 minutes per game. I thought possibly this number was short because of the possibility of Baylor running away with this one. But, if you look in conference play, all but ONE game out of 16, Dennis has played at least 34 minutes. And the one game he did not play at least 34, he still played 30. So, he’s going to be out there for the majority of the game, regardless of the score. This is a HUGE game for Baylor in terms of holding onto a top 4 seed in the conference tournament (Double Bye). So he’s going to play a ton of minutes. His usage rate for Baylor is absurd. He has the ball in his hands more than almost any point guard in the country. I think we’re going to have plenty of opportunities for assists tonight, and I think he is going to get close to double digits. And it’s just icing on the cake that we’re getting PLUS MONEY.

Official Pick: RAY J DENNIS OVER 6.5 ASSISTS (+106)

Units: 2

Extra Notes:

Like I said I have been on a cold streak so far the past couple of days for my official picks. However, I do play a ton of small things on the side throughout the day, as I sit there and look for value. It is really difficult to post things when you are live betting or betting at halftime. But that’s essentially what I do on a daily basis. For example, Saturday I saw UNC at -1.5 at halftime, down 8 to NC State, and I jumped on that. I saw Minnesota at +125 in the final 5 minutes of the game down 3, but they were on a huge run and had all the momentum. I cashed both of those. I liked Gonzaga in the late game, but wanted a better value. When they got down 3 early on, I was able to see a +155 live, and at that price, it was too much to pass up. So I got in live on the Zags. I cashed all three of those, but again it’s really hard to give those out when you’re talking about getting numbers that are only available for 30 seconds to a few minutes (even halftime live betting you may have 10-15 minutes total to make an educated decision and place your wager). I did also take a very small (.25 unit play) on Nebraska -4 in the first half yesterday, which cashed easily. My point in saying this, is just to say I am usually pretty consistent in the long run, and I do this for a living so I am going to be doing this stuff all day (like day trading). I’m hesitant to give out EVERY SINGLE thing I like on here, because I don’t want people to take it and bet them for the same amount as my top plays. But since I have had a couple rough days in a row I’ll give out just OPINIONS here below. This is just a few things I may bet tonight.

Angles: NOT OFFICIAL PLAYS - just ideas if you happen to like one of these sides.

Angle 1: Baylor Bears LIVE: This will be an angle I’m looking to play. If the Longhorns come out hot and are able to snag a lead of 4-6 points at some point early in the game. If I can get Baylor at -3 or better at any point in the game I probably will.

Angle 2: Take the Baylor Bears -4 in the first half, and if it wins great, you’ve got some profit. If not, look to take the Bears live at halftime. You’ll be getting good value if they are losing. I think that’s a decent angle as well.

Angle 3: Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville: We’ve seen sharp money on Kennesaw -2 and the over 146, 146.5, and 147. There’s probably some small value there in the side. Maybe the total live, because I see it all the way to 148 on Bovada. We also saw some sharp money on Nichols State pushing it from -1 to -2. So just a few little sharp sides for you there as well. Those are all things I may play for a few bucks. Good luck tonight!!