College Basketball Best Bets (3/5/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 5, 2024 | 5:21 P.M. CST
Best Bets for Tonight (1U each)
Best Bet #1: VCU Rams -5.5 vs. Duquesne Dukes
VCU has won 6 straight at home since dropping back-to-back home games back in early January. In fact, VCU as whole since that 0-2 start to conference play is 11-3 straight up, with those 3 losses coming on the road, and all against teams in the top 6 in the conference (Richmond - 1st, UMASS - 5th, St. Bony’s - 6th). Of those 6 home wins by the Rams, 4 have come by over 5.5 points (the margin tonight). They’re also 3-0 SU in their last 3 games following a loss. That is actually one of the main reasons I like them in this spot. The Rams have been good at home all season, and they’ve been really solid off a loss. They are not only playing this one at home, but this is also their final home game. Some teams that may not matter all that much, but I think for VCU it does. Two of VCU’s top players left Utah State with Barry Odom last season and came to VCU, so those are two guys who have been with their coach for the entirety of their career. VCU is also very senior heavy - 6 of their top 7 scorers are seniors, likely playing in their last home game. So I think we’re going to get a very focused, very motivated Rams team tonight. VCU also has some motivation for winning this game in terms of the A10 tournament. They are currently 11-5, sitting in 4th place in the A10. A win tonight would clinch them a top 4 seed in the A10 Tourney, which is very meaningful because it means you will have a double bye to start the tournament. They will still have a chance to clinch that 4th spot with a loss, but I’m certain clinching that top 4 seed is a priority tonight, to avoid needing a road win in their final game (even if it is vs. GW).
Looking at Duquesne, they’ve definitely had a good season for their standards. They are right in the middle of the pack in the A-10, sitting at 8-8 in conference play. They started off A-10 play miserably, but to their credit they went on a very nice winning streak right in the heart of conference play. They’ve been a little bit up and down lately, going 5-3 in their last 8 games. They key though, is that those last 3 losses have all come by double digits. Why that tends to happen is because Duquesne struggles to score the ball at times. They are just 174th in Offensive Efficiency on the season, and they can really go through spurts where they struggle to score. Even in their upset win against George Mason on the road last time out, they started off the game down 14-2. To their credit they found a way to bounce back and cut the lead to just 2 at halftime, before going on to win it outright by 8. However, that win is partially why I like VCU as well. The Dukes are on currently on a 2-game winning streak. Throughout conference play they’ve only had one instance where they won more than 2 games in a row; that spurt came nearly 2 months ago, when they won 3 straight conference games. However, two of those games came at home, and the lone road win in that span came against Rhode Island (12th out of 14 in the A10).
The last reason I like this game is probably the main reason I’m going with VCU. I already like the spot, but I don’t think the number has massive value. I made this 6.2, so we’re getting less than a point of value in this game. KenPom has a very similar number to mine as well. But, factoring in the spot gets me closer to 7. And then, you look at the matchup. As I mentioned above, Duquesne is one of the worst offensive teams in the conference, and they hang their hat on their defense. Unfortunately for the Dukes, that’s exactly what VCU does as well. The Rams are 119th in offensive efficiency while the Dukes are 174th. The Rams are 48th in defensive while the Dukes are 54th. So you have very similar style teams here, but the Dukes do the same things that the Rams do worse. Stylistically, when you get teams that are very similar, it can be very difficult for the inferior team to have success because they aren’t giving the better team anything different. VCU is also the far superior shooting team, knocking down over 36 of their threes (good for 61st in the country) compared to Duquesne’s very poor 33% (outside the top 250 in that category). Lastly, and probably importantly here, if VCU doesn’t blow out the Dukes, and this game comes down to FT shooting late, that is a HUGE edge to VCU. VCU is the 7th best Free Throw shooting team in the country at 79.3%. The Dukes? Just 70.3% (234th in the country). Expect the Dukes to leave a lot of points at the line, and if it’s a close game late, expect VCU to close out the Dukes and get the cover by knocking down some key Free Throws Late. Back the Rams in this spot, at home on Senior night.
OFFICIAL PICK: VCU -5.5
Best Bet #2: Florida Gators -1 vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
This pick is based mostly on the spot, and the teams current forms. Alabama is coming off a brutal loss at home to Tennessee. A few games ago the Crimson Tide looked like they were in full control of the SEC race, but they’ve now lost 2 of their last 3, and no longer control their own destiny in the SEC. Florida on the other hand is playing really good basketball as of late. There are a lot of people around the country who think this team is a sleeper to make a deep March Madness Run.
The first matchup between these two teams really should’ve gone Floridas way. They led late in that game and really outplayed Alabama for much of it as well. Now they’re getting Bama back at home off a loss. Florida has also not lost in SEC play at home all season. All 5 of their conference losses came on the road. I also hated what I saw from Alabama against Tennessee on Saturday. They took some really bad shots all night long. Sears pretty much dissapeared down the stretch for the Crimson Tide. But worst of all, they just got beat by a team who played harder. They didn’t rebound well at all. They didn’t defend late in that game. Tennessee didn’t shoot a great percentage, but they hit 12 threes against Bama. And absolutely mauled them on the offensive glass and on hustle plays late in that game to run away with it. Unless Alabama has a monster shooting night I think the Gators take care of business and knock off Alabama tonight.
Official Pick: Florida -2
Best Bet #3: Illinois -2 vs. Purdue
I went back and forth on making this an official play. I figured in the long run you have to take Illinois in this spot. It’s a monster game at home for them. Purdue has not played great as of late, despite the public perception of them being the best team in the country. They are just 1-5 against the spread against the top 5 teams in the Big 10 this season. They failed to cover at home in their last outing against a Michigan State team who struggles to score. Now they go on the road to Illinois, one of the toughest places in the country to play.
Illinois one home loss in the Big 10 came against Maryland (who sucks) but it came without Terrance Shannon Jr, who is a huge part of their team. With Shannon back, Illinois has been the second best offensive team in the country in that time. The problem has been their defense. And that’s the only thing keeping me off a BIG play tonight. They are outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. The reason I still like Illinois, is that it’s somewhat by design. They want to play fast and they want to make it a high scoring affair, which tends to dip their defensive numbers. At times, they can dig in and get defensive stops.
I just think spot wise, you have to take the Illini in this spot. This is their Super Bowl tonight, and Purdue has much less to play for from a motivation standpoint. I think it’s going to be a great game, but I’ll take the Illini SMALL in this one.
Official Pick: Illinois -2
