College Basketball Best Bet (2/28/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 28, 2024 | 5:44 P.M. CST
Note: Went 1-1 on our Best Bets last night, and won our opinion easily, for a nice little profitable night. We keep grinding away and making profit on nights where the cards aren’t great. We’re going to try to do the same tonight. Our Under on Mississippi State/UK ended up going way over, but we actually were under until 58 seconds to go in the game. There were 27 points scored in the final minute of the game. The side was incorrect though, mostly because Chris Jans allowed his guys to run. Mississippi State’s only shot to win that game was if they slowed the game down, which they did in stretches, but they didn’t do it enough, and that allowed the game to get to way too fast of a pace. Our other best bet Notre Dame +6.5 we got the outright win, with the Fighting Irish upsetting the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Our opinion for just .5 units won easily, as we took Syracuse TT Over 77.5 and we were at 45 points in the first half alone. We went over with relative ease. Let’s take a look at the best bet for tonight.
Game: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Central Florida Knights
Line: OSU -2.5 (-110) | UCF +2.5 (-110)
Time: 7:00 P.M. CST
Location: Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, OK (OKST Home Arena)
Summary:
We’re going to look to the home team in this one as the Cowboys have been playing much better basketball as of late. Oki State started off the season about as bad as possible, and conference play wasn’t much better. They lost six consecutive games to start Big 12 play, before finally getting a win over West Virginia. But the Cowboys are very similar to the team we looked at last night in Notre Dame. Their record isn’t great, and when you look at their metrics they aren’t good, however they are playing much better basketball as of late. They had won two straight games, including a home win over #19 (at the time) BYU. Saturday they faced off against their rival in Oklahoma, who is an NCAA Tourney team, and the Cowboys had them on the ropes late. They really should have won that game. OKST had the ball in a tie game with a chance to win it on the final possession. Javon Small, the leading scorer for the Cowboys, got fouled with just 4 seconds on the clock and went to the line for a 1 and 1. Small, who finished the game with 21 points and was outstanding most of the game (10/16 shooting), is an 85% free throw shooter on the season, but missed the front end of the 1 and 1. Thus we headed for overtime. Then in overtime, the Cowboys had a 1 point lead with less than 10 seconds remaining. OU held for the final shot, and Javian McCollum, who was 4/13 in the game and 1/9 from three at the time, settled for a terrible step back three at the buzzer, and BURIED it for the win. A heartbreaker for the Cowboys.
But the loss does not take away from the improvement the Cowboys have shown down the stretch in the toughest conference in the country. They really have been competitive lately, even in the games they’ve lost. The two losses by more than 5 in the past 9 games were at Houston and at Kansas, two of the toughest places to play in the country. The other four losses in that stretch were by 5, 4, 4, and 2. So they’ve been right in most games they’ve played. They’ve also won 3 games in that stretch. But more importantly, they’ve been significantly better at home. Both of those double digit losses I mentioned happened on the road. At home they’ve won 3 of their last 4, with the lone loss coming to OU at the buzzer (as detailed above).
Central Florida on the other hand, has been abysmal on the road in conference play. They are a horrific 1-6 on the road in Big 12 play, with their lone win coming at the Texas Longhorns, back almost a month and a half ago. In that win against the Longhorns, the Knights trailed by 15 points in the second half. In fact, at that point (trailing by 15), ESPN analytics gave them a less than 3% chance of coming back to win the game. But they went on a crazy run, while Texas’ offense went absolutely dry, and the Knights stormed back to win by 6. The Knights are actually 1-7 on the road overall on the seasons, as their lone non-conference road game came at the Miami Hurricanes, who have a very minor home court advantage by the way, and they lost that game by 15. So we have a team who who is 1-7 on the road on the season. They have lost on the road 6/7 times in conference play. And, their lone win came in a game where they had just a 2.7% chance to win in the second half. Those numbers all favor us fading the Cowboys tonight.
Lastly, let’s just look at the form as of late. Not only is Oki State playing better, but UCF is playing very poorly as of late. They did pick up a home win against Texas Tech on Saturday, but before that they had lost 4 straight games. That game against Texas Tech looks even less impressive after watching the Red Raiders get routed by the Texas Longhorns at home last night. Not only that, but the Knights have trended the opposite way of the Cowboys. They’ve actually played worse as the season has gone on. So we’ve got one team trending the right direction, playing at home where they play much better. And we’ve got another team trending the wrong direction, playing on the road where they’ve struggled all season. AND, we have the Cowboys off a loss here, and the Knights off a win. Oddly enough I like that better. Had the Cowboys won the game against OU on Saturday, and UCF lost to Tech, I would not have looked to this game. I’m less concerned with the UCF outcome, but I like that Oki State is coming off a loss. They will be very focused coming in tonight. They aren’t going to the NCAA tournament so this game is important to them, without having the pressure that comes with NEEDING this game. I think they play loose and have a good offensive night, despite the fact that UCF’s defense is pretty good.
Lastly, I want to mention the number. I like the Cowboys in this spot a lot. We’ve also seen professional money on the Cowboys as we saw this open 1.5 and get bet up to 2.5. The only thing that I don’t love about this number is the hook. I would really love it at 2. I make this number 3 according to my power rankings, if you remove the spot completely. So with the spot, with the trends as of late, it’s a touch higher. All that said, of UCF’s road losses, only one has come by 2 or less. So it likely shouldn’t matter. But with a total in the 139 area, that hook is somewhat important. Because of that we’re only laying one unit. But I do like this play.
I have two other plays I was strongly considering. I just don’t want to give them out, because I don’t love them, and I think this Oki State ticket is the best option on the board tonight. So let’s just roll with the one play. If anyone who follows my plays is dying for two extra SMALL plays, hit me up and I can give them to you. But I would just play this one. Thanks and good luck tonight!!
OFFICIAL PICK: OKI STATE -2.5
