College Basketball Best Bets + Opinions (2/27/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 27, 2024 | 4:15 P.M. CST
Summary: 2-2 Best Bets on the weekend & we passed last night on the games in a limited card. Not the best weekend, but hey when your bad weekends are .500 and your good week was 10-1, you’ll take that every day of the week. We will try to get back on track tonight. I’ve got two Best Bets for you guys and one small opinion play. Best of luck!!
Best Bets (1U Each)
1) Kentucky @ Mississippi State UNDER 156
Look I hate taking unders here but this is a really tough spot for Kentucky. Mississippi State has been tremendous defensively on the season (9th in the country in Defensive Efficiency). They also play at one of the slower paces in the country. When these two teams met the first time we went over this total by 11 points, but that game was at Rupp Arena. This game is down in Starkville. Usually the home team has a better chance of controlling pace here. I think back to a game a week ago where I saw Wake Forest put up 91 at home against Pittsburgh. The game prior to that was at a slow paced Virginia team and they scored 47. So it definitely can be tough to get an up and down game going on the road vs a very controlled team.
Secondly, I’m just going to fade Kentucky’s previous outing. They were phenomenal against Alabama and they could not have shot the ball better (13/24 from beyond the arc). Now you go from playing at home, against a very below average defense, to playing probably the best defense in the SEC, on the road. It’s just a completely different spot. Now if UK comes out and just lights it up early and forces Mississippi State to play faster than they want to, we could get in trouble here. But I think this is going to be a much slower paced game. We’ve also seen UK have some pretty big let downs against some much worse teams following big wins this season.
2) Notre Dame +6.5 vs. Wake Forest
Look Wake Forest is a team that has been incredible at home, but it’s been a completely different story on the road. They struggle massively away from Winston Salem. In fact they’ve lost 6 of their last 7 road games in conference play on the road outright. Their only road win in that span came at Georgia Tech, who has very little home court advantage. Wake also lost at Pittsburgh and at Virginia who has been an absolute mess the last few weeks.
Notre Dame on the other hand has really improved from the start of the season. I like how they are playing as of late. In fact they had won three straight before dropping one to Syracuse on Saturday on the road. However, in that game the Irish were down 25 points and very easily could have laid down in that game. They aren’t really playing for anything at this point, as they aren’t an NCAA Tournament team. They were down big on the road, in a meaningless game and they fought all the way back to darn near win the game outright. They covered that number +5.5 as an underdog. Now they’re catching 6.5 at home, where they’ve played much better. They’ve played a number of really good teams close at home.
The most important thing about this game though in why I’m playing it is the spot. Look you can look through all the numbers and statistics you want, but if you have played AGAINST teams off massive emotional wins this season, you’ve made a TON of money. Just this weekend we saw Washington State go to Arizona State (who has a losing record). Wazzu was coming off a HUGE program defining win over Arizona on the road. They turn around two days later and lose outright to a bad ASU team as 5.5 point favorites (and we’ve seen this happen over and over this year to teams in those spots). This feels like a very similar spot with the Deacs upsetting Duke in that incredibly emotional game on Saturday. Now they travel to a tough ND team, who’s playing better, who plays super hard, and you’ve got to do something you haven’t done all year consistently: Win on the road. I think this is a TERRIBLE spot for the Deacs so we’re going to take the Irish here.
3) Syracuse Team Total Over 77.5 vs. VT
The Syracuse offense at home this season in ACC play has averaged right around what this number is (78.3 PPG). But if you look at how their season has gone → They struggled early in conference play offensively, and they’ve trended better as the season has gone on. In their last 5 games, 4 of them have gone over this team total, and they’re averaging 82.6 PPG (5 more than we need in tonights game).
Then we look at VT’s Defense on the Road:
Overall in conference play on the road, VT has allowed above this number in 6 of their 8 outings → They’re giving up an average of 79.6 PPG on the road
However, look how their defense is trending lately → they’ve given up 78+ in 4 of their last 5 road ACC games
The only game they did NOT allow 78 or more, they gave up 74 (not far off from 78)
AVG PPG Allowed last 5 = 81.8 PPG
So again, if you look at the season numbers here for these two teams → How Syracuse has been at home vs. how VT has played on the road, their probably isn’t a HUGE edge here. However, when you look at the way these teams have been trending in these spots, we get a number here that probably should be closer to 80 or 81.
Pro Money: We’ve also seen a little bit of professional money come in on the Game Total OVER here as a whole → I think that’s a good thing for us. I thought about looking to that game total, but my feeling is if this game goes over, Syracuse is going to need to go over their team total anyways. So rather than need VT to get there too, let’s just ride with Syracuse if the numbers make sense, which they indeed do.
Look at Syracuse Offensive Ratings Overall on Season:
eFG% = 50.5% (184th) → Not great
33.1% 3FGs (214th) → Not great
BUT what about in home conference games?
Syracuse’s L5 Home Games: Shooting 40.6% from beyond the arc (that would be good for 2nd in the country) → Yes that’s a small sample size, but you could also argue it’s the direction they’ve trended as of late (they’ve shot the ball better as the season has progressed)
Even if you take it back to the entirety though of the conference season at home they are 35.6% (80th in the country), which is still significantly better than their season long metrics of 33.1%
We see the same thing for Cuse’s eFG% → Overall on season 214th → Last 5 home games → 58.1% (that would be good for 3rd country)
Then You look at VT: On the season not been good defending the three → 33.8% allowed (184th in country). They are just as bad allowing shots to fall as a whole. Their eFG% Defense is 175th in the country. All those numbers get worse on the road as well.
But most importantly they really struggle to contain good athletic guards → They really do a horrible job protecting the rim
Syracuse has some really athletic guards
They are going to struggle staying in front of those guys with Catoor and Pagula (those are slow white guys, lol)
And they don’t have a rim protector + their back up big is HORRIBLE
Lastly:
Syracuse: 48th in No. of possessions/game | 37th in adjusted tempo ⇒ So this team does play fast
VT doesn’t play super fast = they are 168th in Adjusted Tempo (A little bit above average for D1) → But like I said their just so bad on the road defensively and I think this is going to be an up tempo game → Especially if Cuse gets a lead early = VT is going to be forced to play faster than they want
Take CUSE Team Total over 77.5 here as my opinion of the day
