College Hoops Best Bets (2/4/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 4, 2025 | 2:30 P.M. CST
Quick Summary:
Yesterday’s Play: 1-0 (UAB -2 vs. North Texas)
Overall Season Record: 30-12 (71.4%)
I’m not going to sit here and pretend to believe this is sustainable; but we keep winning, so I’m not going to apologize for it either, lol. Another winner last night. It was a close game, and glad it went our way. That said, it was clearly the right side all game long, and SHOULD HAVE gone our way. On to tonight. Plays listed below.
Best Bets: Northwestern -2 vs. USC
I actually hate giving out the worst of a number. That said, there’s still value in this number, and I love the spot here. This opened NW -1 and has got bet up to 2. Some books are trending towards 2.5 so I would get on this as quickly as possible. It’s playable at 2.5, but don’t play at 3.
We look at this matchup, it’s two teams who probably both will be playing in the NIT or possibly not at all come mid-March. USC comes in 13-8, NW just 12-10, although USC does bolster a better conference record at 5-5 in Big 10 Play. Also, there’s no doubt that the Trojans are playing better basketball as of late. They’ve won 4 of their last 6, including two road outings at Illinois and at Nebraska (both pretty impressive road wins). And, they just knocked off top 10 ranked Michigan State at home, who was previously unbeaten in Big 10 play. Northwestern, on the other hand, has struggled mightily as of late. They are 1-4 in their last 5 games, dropping three straight, including back-to-back home games to Rutgers and Wisconsin. So we do have teams trending in opposite directions. And, normally I’d be inclined to take the team trending better, but not here.
Overall, this is a super tough spot for USC, both mentally, as well as in terms of travel. First, this Trojans team is physically traveling across the country. They made a similar trip across the country earlier this season to Indiana, following a multi-game home stand, and they lost by double digits. Now, they have won their last two conference road games, but one came against Illinois when they were already on the East Coast for the Indiana game; and, the other came against a Nebraska team in the midst of a 7-game losing streak. So, from a traveling aspect this is a tough trip, and I do think that favors NW significantly, who is playing their 3rd consecutive home game. Thus, they’ve not had to deal with any travel over the past 10 days, and should be perfectly well rested and ready to roll.
Then you look at the mental aspect of this. This USC team is coming off their biggest win of the season, BY FAR. They took down #7 Michigan State at home last Saturday. It was a big time win for the program (the biggest win for SC under Eric Mussleman). When you think about how big that win is, and how high the team was Saturday, it’s difficult to believe they are getting right back up for a road game at a Northwestern team that comes in at the bottom of the Big 10 Standings. It’s a perfect let down spot for the Trojans. Then you look at who USC plays next, and it’s another top 10 team, as they travel TO #7 Purdue Friday night. So it’s not just a let down spot coming off the MSU win, but it’s also a spot sandwiched between another top ten opponent. Knowing that USC is going to need a few more signature wins to gets itself in the tournament, and coming off that big time win Saturday, it’s very realistic to see them lay an egg here against NW. And clearly, that’s why we have seen NW open as a short favorite, AND TAKE MONEY up to 2/2.5.
Then you look at the metrics of both teams, and while USC has a better record, better conference record, and is trending better from a results perspective, this Northwestern team is still METRICALLY better than this USC team. KenPom has NW ranked 53, with USC 6 spots below them at 59; not a huge differential, but it’s a different story than the conference standings tell us. KP makes this game NW -4, which is closer to my number (I make NW -4.52).
Matchup wise, Northwestern does an excellent job keeping the opposing offense off the offensive glass (top 70 in country out of 364 teams), while USC ranks outside the top 265 in ORB%. Additionally, Northwestern is ELITE taking care of the ball, as they come into this matchup 20th in the country in TO%. Those two things combined mean that USC is NOT going to get a ton of extra possessions against this NW team. Therefore, they are going to have to shoot a high percentage to be able to win this game outright (which is essentially what they will have to do to cover). The only other thing that stands out matchup wise is that NW SHOULD have a slight advantage on each side of the ball; NW comes in 45th in the country in Defensive Efficiency, to USC’s 55th in Offensive Efficiency. On the other side, NW is just 71st in Offensive Efficiency, but USC is 77th Defensively. It’s a remedial way to look at it, but it gives a general idea of who may have a slight advantage, all other matchups equal.
Overall, I like the spot a lot, as mentioned before. We throw in the number being about 2.5 points off from my number (as well as KP’s). And then the fact that KP and advanced statistics both slightly favor NW. I believe we will see some public money on USC here following the big upset of MSU, and NW’s recent struggles. However, we’re still seeing line movement in favor of NW, which is a good sign as well. We’re going to go with the Wildcats as our best bet tonight. Best of luck. I will also have a couple of OPINIONS below, but this is the ONLY official play of the night.
Official Pick: Northwestern -2 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
Additional Plays (Missed Card, but Considered):
Kentucky +4.5 @ Ole Miss: I just hate giving out road teams, especially in a conference like the SEC + Kentucky’s Starting PG Lamont Butler is still out. I don’t think UK just gets smacked tonight, considering they just lost at home to Arkansas. They should have a decent bounce back here, but their defense also scares me. I gave out UK catching 10.5 on the road last week & they won outright, but Tennessee struggles to score - Ole Miss does not. I like Ole Miss, but they haven’t looked as good lately. Part of it is their schedule, part of it is they aren’t UBER talented. But Beard is still damn good, and Padula has been very good. I lean UK here as I believe this number just got bet up too much. I think Ole Miss SHOULD win, but 4.5 makes this UK or pass.
Vanderbilt @ Florida OVER 155.5: This was probably the closest play to making the card. Florida had one of their worst offensive performances of the season Saturday in Knoxville. They are the 6th best offensive team in the country (KenPom) and scored 44 points in an entire game. They are GOING to bounce back here. They’re going from facing the #1 defense in the country (Tennessee) to playing the 76th ranked defense (Vanderbilt tonight). Expect an avalanche from this Florida offense in front of a ruckus crowd. Vanderbilt SHOULD have no problem scoring here. Yes, Florida’s defense is metrically top 10 in the country, but they play extremely fast. In fact, both teams are top 90 in the country in adjusted tempo. I expect this to be up and down, fast paced, and high scoring. The ONLY thing keeping me off this game is Vandy’s inconsistency shooting the 3 (shooting in general). They are one of the streakiest teams in the country. And if they start off slow, and get down big, this could be a game where they get blown out, and we end up in the 85-65 range. That’s legitimately possible, so we’re staying off, but this was my favorite play that missed the card.
BYU -2.5 vs. Arizona: BYU is playing really good basketball lately (pains me to say). They’ve improved more than any team in the country over the past 2 months. Arizona is playing great, but they’re due for a loss. It’s not the toughest travel spot for Arizona, but back-to-back emotional wins; one in dramatic fashion over ASU, and one over their rival where emotions spewed over late. Caleb Love is also one of the streakiest players in the country, and he played really good the last two games. It feels like he’s due for a stinker, but if he has turned a corner then he could be enough to get Arizona over the top tonight. Staying away, but I like BYU in this spot
Baylor +7.5 @ TTU: Staying away because it’s on the road, but classic let down spot for the Red Raiders after that emotional win at Houston Saturday afternoon. Tech is also playing above their talent level the past 4-5 outings. While Baylor is coming off a confidence building win. Additionally, the Bears have the PURE TALENT to win this game outright. Their two freshmen have been absolutely phenomenal late.
UCLA vs. Michigan State UNDER 140.5: This is going to be an absolute SLUGFEST, between two physical, defensive teams. This number is way too high. I made it 134.5. UCLA has been shooting it better lately, but they are not going to do so against a good MSU perimeter defense. And MSU is the WORST 3 point shooting team in the P5. Give me the under in this one all day. Just couldn’t get there for an official play
