College Hoops Best Bet + Big Game Breakdown & Opinion (2/3/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 3, 2025 | 11:58 A.M. CST
Season Record: 29-12 (70.7%)
Best Bet: UAB -2 vs. North Texas
These two teams come into this game tonight fighting for sole possession of 2nd place in the American Conference. Both North Texas (16-5) & UAB (14-8) come into this game 7-2 in conference play, while Memphis sits atop the conference at 8-1. Despite being tied record wise, NT currently holds the tiebreaker, as the Mean Green took down the Blazers in their first matchup in Denton, TX. This UAB team finished 4th in the American Conference last season (12-6 in conference play), but RAN through the AAC Tournament, winning all three of their tourney games by double digits on their way to clinching a spot in the Big Dance; the Blazers nearly pulled off an upset in Round 1 of the NCAA tournament, but fell to SDSU, 65-69 in a close game.
A solid regular season, paired with the conference tournament run had AAC coaches high on the UAB Blazers entering this season; they were picked to win the conference in the pre-season. However, a number of subpar non-conference performances led to a very poor start (UAB was 5-6 through their first 11 games). However, since that poor start, the Blazers have won 9 of their last 11 games, going 7-1 in their last 8 games, on their way to a 7-2 start to conference play (much closer to their pre-season projections in the AAC). Their lone losses BOTH came ON THE ROAD, and to each of the top two teams in the American: @ Memphis lost by 23 & @ North Texas by 3.
Meanwhile, North Texas was picked to finish all the way back in 7th in the American Conference, but they’ve been far better than that projection. They’ve already 16 wins (16-5 start to the year), and one game away from having sole possession of 2nd place in the American. They actually started 16-4, and all 4 losses were to very solid teams. In fact, every team they fell to before this past Saturday is currently in 1st or 2nd in their respective conference standings. And, their lone conference loss was a 4 point loss at 1st place Memphis. However, Saturday they faced off against UTSA, who was just 9-11 overall and 3-5 in conference play, and a lack of offense from the Mean Green led to UTSA pulling an upset. It was the first real “BAD” loss on the Mean Green’s schedule, as not only was it to a team far outside NT’s class, but it was also a HOME loss (1st true home loss all year for North Texas)
So why are we backing UAB here? Well, let’s start with the way these teams are trending. Yes, both teams hold identical record the past 9 conference games, however UAB’s two losses both came on the road, while NT just lost at home to UTSA. I mention that because they are both trending up, but I believe North Texas’ confidence is trending the opposite way, and I could see them coming into this game really struggling. Think about it: they just played the 273rd ranked defense in the country (out of 364 teams), who is outside the top 330 in effective FG% defense, and outside the top 300 in both 2FG% & 3FG% defense. Against that defense, AT HOME, the Mean Green shot 15/47 (31.9%), 3/17 from three (17.6%), and scored a TOTAL of 50 points.
Meanwhile, UAB has been playing great basketball on the offensive end. Looking at the Blazers metrically, they come in top 40 in the country in offensive efficiency, and they are especially good in the paint and utilizing 2FGs. They don’t settle for a ton of threes, and they are ELITE on the offensive glass (8th in the country in ORB%). Now, North Texas is very good on the defensive glass over the course of the season, but these two teams faced each other once already; and, in that game, North Texas was absolutley ABUSED on the glass. UAB secured 15 offensive rebounds, they were a +7 on the offensive glass, and they were a +10 on the glass as a whole. If UAB dominates the glass they way they did in the first matchup, which was at North Texas, they will win this game going away.
Additionally, in that first matchup, UAB actually led by 17 at halftime, and they were in complete control of that game. It was a a huge run by North Texas to start the second half that got them back in the game, and eventually NT was able to steal a win, outscoring the Blazers by 20 points in the second half to win, 81-78. Lastly, UAB had 13 TO’s in that game at North Texas a few weeks back, which is highly uncharacteristic of this Blazer’s team. They come into this game with a 14.5% TO percentage, which ranks 21st in the entire country. It would be surprising to see UAB turn the ball over that many times tonight.
Last point I’d like to make is that TEMPO is going to be important; North Texas plays at one of the slowest paces in the entire country. In fact, they are the SECOND SLOWEST team in the nation (363rd in Adjusted Tempo out of 364 teams). Meanwhile, UAB wants to play MUCH faster. They come in ranked 71st in Adjusted Tempo, meaning they are in the top 20% of teams in terms of fast pace of play. Well, when we look at that first game, we saw an up & down high scoring game, finishing with a total 159 points between the two teams. With that in mind, it seems NT was wiling to play up and down with UAB more than I expected. And because they won, I believe this game is going to be similar. That strongly favors UAB in this spot. So we’re going with the BLAZERS here and lay the small number. I wouldn’t be opposed to laying the ML if you have access to -125 or better. These two teams always tend to play close games. That said, UAB is a good FT shooting team, so if it is close late I expect them to make their free throws and close out the game at the line.
Official Pick: UAB -2 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
Additional Pick:
I really HATE the way Kansas has been trending lately. I truly believe that this was just a BAD nucleus of guys that Bill Self recruited (including transfers), because this Kansas team is arguably the most talented group in the country from top to bottom. I don’t think there’s a deeper, more talented roster, and yet they’ve been on a negative trajectory for the past month. It really wouldn’t even surprise me if Bill Self is on his way out at Kansas one of the next few years, with all the changes to recruting, NIL, and paying players. He already has two National Championships, and he will go down as one of the greatest college coaches ever. If he is thinking about coaching 5-10 more years, it wouldn’t shock me if he decided to pursue an NBA job soon, just to be able to continue coaching but get away from all the bull shit NIL stuff.
Overall, it’s been a WACKY year for Kansas, to say the least. In the non-conference they go out and beat North Carolina, Michigan State, and Duke. Two of those teams are currently in the top 10, and will likely be top 2-3 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. They then lost their first two true road games (to Creighton and Mizzou), but that’s to be expected in college hoops, even for a team with lots of veteran guys; playing on the road is tough in this sport. BUT, the concern for this team started when they let West Virginia waltz into legendary Fogg Allen Field House and beat them on their home floor. They responded with a few good wins against inferior opponents, but then their last 6 games they’ve gone just 3-3, and there have been some epic collapses in that run. Their first loss in that stretch came at Iowa State (their opponent tonight), a game that the Cyclones dominated. They shot 61% from three, won the rebounding battle by double digits, and cruised to a 17 point loss. Then came the Houston loss, their 2nd home loss of the season. They Jayhawks led by 6 at the end of regulation with just about a minute to play, by 4 with the ball under 45 seconds, and by 2 with the ball with under 20 seconds. A five-second call on the baseline was taken, despite having 2 timeouts left, led to Houston tying the game and sending it to OT. In OT the Jayhawks led by 6, with Dejuan Harris (83% FT shooter) shooting 2 FTs, with 18 seconds remaining. And somehow, someway the Jayhawks COLLAPSED and allowed Houston to force double OT. The Cougars would go on to knock off the Jayhawks in double OT. And, then the final loss in this rough patch came on the road against Baylor, where the Jayhawks blew a 21 point first half lead and went on to LOSE by 11. In between there, the Jayhawks BARELY escaped Central Florida at home as well, escaping with a fortunate call late in the game.
Iowa State, on the other hand, is coming off their worst performance of the season by far. They did have a starter out, but losing at home to K-State is purely a lack of focus. The Cyclones have been the best team at home in college basketball over the past 2-3 years, and K-State has been the worst road team in the conference the last two years. Because they played so poorly, I think this is a really good bounce back spot for the Cyclones. I believe the lack of focus came from the brutal loss suffered at Arizona the game prior to K-State; the Cyclones should really be sitting here with just one conference loss, and now they sit with 3. But, this Cyclones team is very mentally tough, and TJ Otzleberger is one of the best coaches in the country. They will be ready to go tonight in Lawerence. On the other side, I believe there is something fundamentally flawed with this KU team, especially in terms of their psyche.
Therefore, I like ISU in this spot a lot. The problem is, I just have a very hard time taking a road team in conference play in this tough of an environment. So I’m just going to give this out as my “free pick” or “opinion” of the night. We’re not going to make it an official play, although I believe ISU will win the game outright
NON-Official Pick/OPINION: ISU +2.5 (-110)
