College Hoops Best Bet (2/6/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 6, 2025 | 4:26 P.M. CST
Overall Season Record: 31-14 (68.9%)
Best Bet: Ohio State -1 vs. Maryland
It’s hard to win on the road in big conference consistently. If you look at major conferences over the past 5 years, it’s become extremely difficult to win consistently in hostile environments. I’ve utilized this to my advantage in college basketball for multiple years now, which is why you rarely see me take a road team (there has to be significant value). Not to say teams can’t win on the road, but in the long run, it’s difficult to have success. That’s why we’re going to fade a road team tonight - we’re fading the Maryland Terrapins. The Terps have been a pleasant surprise this season, in Kevin Willard’s fourth year. He’s finally got this team playing up to it’s potential, and they’ve got plenty of talent.
They come into this game on a 4-game win streak as well, with two of those wins coming on the road at Illinois and at Indiana. Now, while the Illinois win is impressive on paper, essentially the Terps got an easy win because Illinois had a horrific shooting night from beyond the arc; and they are a team that is completely reliant on the three-ball to win games. So going 6/28 was a death sentence in itself, but then you throw in 16 TO’s (10 of which were unforced), and that’s how you get to a blowout loss at home. That said, the other win was at Indiana, a game the Terps should’ve lost, but were bailed out by the Hoosiers with poor late game execution. Overall in Big 10 play, the Terps are just 2-4 away from home. So they’re going to try to win their third straight road game, after starting the season 0-4 away from home in conference play. Winning three games in a row on the road is already tough, let alone for teams who have traditionally struggled in those venues.
Additionally, Ohio State is play good basketball right now. After starting Big 10 play off just 2-5, they’ve won 3 of their last 4 games, including a very impressive ROAD WIN at Purdue (Mackey Field House is quite possibly the toughest venue to play at in the country). So they’ve been playing their best basketball as of late, that’s for sure. Their last outing was a loss; but, it was a road game at Illinois, and that was a game Illinois HAD to have after dropping 3 of 4. Ohio State didn’t play poorly, they just really struggled INSIDE the arc. They were 11/23 from three (48%), made 14/15 free throws (93%), and had just 5 TO’s. But they were awful from 2FGs, shooting 32% from inside the arc. That cost the game, along with the fact that Illinois got to the FT line DOUBLE the times OSU did. So I look at that game and try to see if their season long metrics show why that happened. And, well Ohio State isn’t a poor two-point shooting team. They aren’t ELITE, but they shoot 53.4% on the season. Going into that Ohio State game they were in the top 25% of the country in 2FG%, and even with that poor outing, they still sit top 50 in the country in Effective FG%. So, I would be very surprised to see Ohio State struggle like that in the paint again tonight.
Overall, we’re getting the better shooting team here, at home, and they are coming off a road loss. The Buckeyes are 3-2 off a road loss this season. They’re also significantly better at home, especially offensively. And, while the Terps have won two straight road games, they’ve shown a propensity to struggle in tougher environments. Tonight is going to be just that, as Ohio State needs this game like blood. A loss here would drop them to 13-10 and their NCAA tourney hopes would be in serious jeopardy. So let’s back the home team tonight here and take the Buckeyes at a virtual pick ‘em.
Official Pick: Ohio State -1 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
