College Hoops Best Bet (2/7/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 7, 2025 | 12:04 P.M. CST
Overall Record: 32-14 (69.6%)
Probably caught a bit of a break last night, as Ohio State trailed most of the way, and came back from down 11 late in the second half; they also banked in the go-ahead three in the final 15 seconds. But, we were do after a couple of bad beats and that tough push from NW a few nights back after leading by 15 with 9 minutes left due to their best player getting injured and missing the final 8 minutes of the game. Regardless, back to work tonight, trying to get back above 70%
Best Bet: UCONN -3 vs. St. Johns
This line opened 2.5 and is already seeing money coming in on the Huskies. I anticipate this is going to get to 3.5 the way it’s moved, but we’ll say. I would grab the 3 now, as I don’t see St. John’s money coming in from the public late. Regardless, let’s dive into the matchup and spot here.
There’s no hiding that this UCONN team hasn’t been great this season. Obviously, there was going to be a significant downtick for this program this season, coming off back-to-back national titles, and more importantly LOSING most of their roster. They lost Donovan Clingan, Stephon Castle, Cam Spencer, and Tristan Newton all to the NBA Draft, with two of the four going in the top 10. That was 4 of their 5 starters from last year’s National Title team, and they accounted for nearly 70% of the team’s offensive production on the season. All that said, the Huskies still sit 16-6 (8-3 in Big East), tied for 3rd in the loss column in their conference. And, with a win tonight they’d be just one game out of first place in their conference, while holding tiebreakers over 2 of the other top 3 teams.
Additionally, they’ve played most of the season with one of their best players out. Liam McNeeley, the 5-star freshman for the Huskies, has been out over a month. BUT the great news is he is GOING TO PLAY tonight for the first time since January 1st. McNeely has been dealing with a bad high ankle sprain, but he is supposedly 100% good to go tonight. It felt like UCONN held him out longer than necessary, knowing they could get by without him. They just wanted to make sure that once he was back there was not going to be a high risk of re-injury. I also trust Dan Hurley above all else, getting a guy like that back in shape. I don’t feel McNeely returning tonight will be at any disadvantage from not playing the past month. McNeely was their third leading scorer (13.8 PPG) and second leading rebounder on the team when he went out. So his presence will be a welcome site for UCONN fans.
In terms of this specific matchup, we have one of the best offensive teams in the country going up against one of the best defensive teams in the country. UCONN comes in ranked 10th in Offensive Efficiency, while St. John’s comes in ranked 6th in Defensive Efficiency. However, keep in mind, the Huskies built that top 10 offensive ranking while missing their 3rd leading scorer. So, there’s a good chance that UCONN ends the year a top 5 offense in the country. Looking at the metrics, it’s very much a strength vs. strength matchup. UCONN comes in 7th in the nation in Effective FG%, while St. John’s is ranked 22nd in the country in EFG% defense. Both teams are specificially good inside the paint: UCONN 8th in 2FG% (shooting nearly 59%) vs. St. John’s Defense ranked 6th in 2FG% Defense (holding teams to 43%). Overall, a lot of these metrics looking at UCONN’s “O” vs. St. John’s defense are going to look like a wash. In that case, you have to give the slight edge to the offense, because we know in today’s day and age great offense beats great defense a lot of the time.
However, the key metric for me, examining this matchup, comes on the other side of the ball (UCONN Defense vs. SJU Offense). This St. John’s team is HISTORICALLY bad shooting THREES for a team that has had THIS MUCH success. The Johnnies currently sit atop the Big East with just one conference loss, and if they were to hold on and win the Big East they would go down as the worst three-point shooting team to win a power conference in over a decade. They currently sit 340th in the country out of 364 teams in three point percentage, shooting an abysmal 29.4%. They are BETTER shooting it inside the arc at 152nd in the nation, but they aren’t GOOD. This SJU’s team just is NOT an efficient offense, and they don’t shoot it well from anywhere. I mean, even from the FT line they shot sub-70% and they’re 288th nationally in FT%. They rely heavily on their defense and scoring ENOUGH inside the arc. Well, fortunately for UCONNN that’s exactly what they do VERY WELL. They do NOT turn the ball over at a high clip, and they are EXCELLENT defending shots INSIDE THE ARC. The Huskies have just a 16.2% TO% on the season, which ranks in the top 25% of the nation in taking care of the ball. And, they are top-20 NATIONALLY in opponent 2FG%. So, the two areas St. John’s really LIVES and thrives happen to be two areas that UCONN is very good AGAINST. Where UCONN struggles defensively is defending the three-point line; they are allowing teams to shoot a ridiculous 36.8% from three (328th worst 3FG% defense in nation). Well, it’s hard to see a world where St. John’s magically is able to knock down three’s, something they haven’t shown an ability to do all year, regardless of the quality of defense they play. The Johnnies barely even take threes, relative to the rest of the Big East. They are dead last in the conference in 3FGAs, 3FG%, & 3FG production. In fact, they get only 22.5% of their TOTAL PRODUCTION from three point makes, which is the 8th lowest rate in the country.
This specific matchup is TERRIBLE for St. John’s. One last tidbit of information; UCONN plays at an extremely SLOW pace. St. John’s on the other hand, wants to push the pace and play fast (at least on offense). It’s much harder to speed a team down than it is to slow a team down. Usually the slower team controls the pace. AND, this is a home game for UCONN where it tends to be easier to control pace of play. I just think this is a tough spot for the Johnnies. UCONN is a bad matchup for Rick Patino’s bunch, and UCONN needs this to remain in the hunt for a Big East title. It’s a HUGE home game for the Huskies and it’s going to be ROCKING in there. And, they get their 5-star freshman stud back tonight to help their offense, and their rebounding, considering they are not overly large this season. I really like UCONN in this spot. Get it before it gets to 3.5. Back the Huskies as they get a big win tonight
Official Pick: UCONN -3 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
