College Hoops Best Bet (2/13/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 13, 2025 | 2:43 A.M. CST

Overall Record: 42-18 (70.0%)

Best Bet: Nebraska -1.5 vs. Maryland

What a whirlwind of a season it’s been for Fred Hoiberg and the Nebraska Corn Huskers. They started off the season 12-2, with wins over UCLA, Indiana, and on the ROAD over Creighton in one of the toughest environments in college basketball. Their only losses in those first 14 games were on a neutral floor to a very good St. Mary’s team (currently 22-4, atop the WCC) by just 3; and, at Michigan State who has been a top ten team much of the season. However, after the hot start, they preceded to lose 6 consecutive games (all conference games), dropping to 12-8 overall, 2-7 in the Big 10, falling all the way to the bottom of the B10 standings. It is important to mention, that although they went through that tough losing streak, 2 of the games were decided by just 3 points, one by 5 points, and one in overtime. There were really only 2 blowout losses in that stretch, and both were road games (at Purdue, and at Wisconsin, both ranked teams with big HC advantages). The Huskers were not playing terrible, they just could not close out games, and they MIGHTILY struggled on the road. Regardless, since that 28 point loss at Wisconsin, this Huskers team really pulled itself off the matte. They have put together a 4-game win streak (3 of which were over probable NCAA tourney teams), and got themselves squarely back in the NCAA Tournament picture.

A win over a ranked Maryland team today would not only get the Corn Huskers back to .500 in the Big 10, but it likely places them IN the projected NCAA tournament field. It also would be Nebraska’s 6th Quad 1 win, which would be more than Alabama, Houston, and Florida each currently have. Additionally, the rest of their schedule shakes out quite favorably, as 4 of their final 6 games come against teams currently in the bottom 6 of the Big 10 standings. I say all this to depict how big of a game this is for Nebraska. We are absolutely going to get their best effort hear. It’s going to be in front of a sold out, ruckus crowd in Lincoln. And, they are currently playing with loads of confidence. Bryce Williams, their leader and best player, did an interview following their win over Ohio State. He mentioned how Wisconsin had gone on a big losing streak to start conference play, and how they turned their season around and were now ranked in the top 25. He went on to say that now that they got over the hump and got a win, they could BELIEVE they could win games; it was just about consistency going forward. And, they’ve backed that up the past 4 outings.

Now, Maryland is a very solid basketball team, and they are obviously going to be in the NCAA tournament. However, one area they’ve struggled in this season is on the road. They are just 2-5 in true road games this season, including their last outing at Ohio State (a game we backed the Buckeyes). Additionally, one of their two road wins came at Indiana by just one point. Late in that game it looked like a sure loss, as the Terrapins trailed by 4 with 38 seconds to go. It took the Hoosiers missing the front end of a 1-and-1, followed by a three pointer in the final few seconds to give Maryland a one point win. Overall, the Terps STRUGGLE on the road, and Nebraska has created one of the better home court advantages in college basketball. It’s going to be a tough task for Maryland to win this game outright.

On the matchup front, there’s one area stylistically that strongly favors the Corn Huskers. Maryland is heavily reliant on 2FGs; they get 52.2% of their total production from inside the arc (top 100 in country). They are 232nd in the country production from 3FGs. Now, Nebraska is solid defensively overall (34th nationally in Defensive Efficiency). However, they specifically matchup well here against Maryland. They allow one of the highest % of production in the country from three, but one of the lowest from 2. It’s going to take Maryland having a big night from three in order to win this game. And while they shoot a solid percentage on the season, they have not shown a propensity to knock down the outside shot in large volume. Additionally, Maryland’s three point percentage (36.8%) significantly drops in true road games. The Terps shoot 2% worse from beyond the arc in true road games vs. neutral/home games this year. Additionally, in their 5 road losses, that number drops all the way to 33.2% (below national average).

With all that in mind, we can also look at Nebraska’s recent performances to gauge how they are playing right now. In those 4 games the Huskers have been great defensively. They are allowing teams to shoot 31.3% from three and 48.9% from two in that stretch. These numbers are significantly better than their season averages, and would rank both top 50 in the country nationally. They’ve also done a great job taking care of the ball in that stretch (only 8.5 TO’s/game). And, they’ve been very efficient shooting the ball, making over 56% of twos during the same stretch.

Overall, the Corn Huskers are playing some great basketball as of late, and there is no indication that won’t continue tonight. Maryland is playing well lately as well, but their road struggles will continue as they travel to play in a very hostile environment. Nebraska knows this game is massive for their NCAA tournament hopes, and we are going to see one of their best efforts in this one. One final thing I will mention is that Nebraska did lose their starting center at the end of their win over Ohio State. Berke Buyuktuncel has been solid for them in the front court, and they’d obviously love to have him. That said, the backup Center for Nebraska plays very similar minutes to Buyuktuncel, and he’s had some really big games this season. In fact, the first time Maryland and Nebraska met Andrew Morgan (that backup big) led the Huskers in scoring with 17 points, while also adding 5 boards. Now I’m not saying it’s an upgrade, but I do believe Morgan has shown to be just as effective as Buyuktuncel. The thing this hurts the most is the DEPTH of this Nebraska team. When Morgan goes out they are going to have to buy some time without a legitimate center in the game. I strongly believe this won’t be an issue, however I did want to mention it here for those tailing. Despite the injury, I still make this line Nebraska -3. We’re laying just 1.5 here so let’s take Nebraska and lay the short number and see if we can’t get a little streak going heading into the weekend, after the win last night.

Official Pick: Nebraska -1.5

Play Rating: 2-Star