College Hoops Best Bet (2/12/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 12, 2025 | 3:49 P.M. CST

Overall Record: 41-18 (69.5%)

Best Bet: Villanova +3 vs. St. John’s

We’re going to fade the Johnnies one more time here (it’s not worked out for us in the past LOL). Look the Johnnies are due for a loss. It’s not that I don’t think they are a good team, but when you have a team shooting this poorly from three, and relying so heavily on 2FGs, eventually they are going to have a night where they have enough trouble scoring to lose a game. Legitimately the Johnnies have needed some very fortunate luck to go their way to continue this incredible win streak in Big East play. They were getting their doors blown off against UCONN last week when I faded them and UCONN blew the lead on their home floor. St. John’s went on a crazy run late to win the game outright as a three point dog. They also caught UCONN at a good time as their star freshman Liam McNeeley was in his first game back from a month long absence due to an injury. McNeely was 4/17 from the field that night, and couldn’t buy a three. For reference on how good he can actually be, he went for 37 points last night AT CREIGHTON. So that was a big help to the Johnnies that he was incredibly rusty coming off that long break.

Look at this specific matchup, Villanova is one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the country, knocking down nearly 40% of their triples on the season (4th in Nation). They also shoot 81% from the FT line, good for 9th in the nation. This is a team that is excellent shooting the ball, and they have the ability to legitimately trade 3s for 2s in this matchup. Additionally, Nova is one of the slowest paced teams in the country, while St. John’s is one of the faster paced teams in the nation. It’s much easier to slow a game down than it is to speed the game up, especially as the home team. I really like the matchup in terms of efficiency; it reminds me a little of Kentucky/Tennessee which we won last night catching a similar number.

Overall, we have reached PEAK MARKET for St. John’s and that is why this game hit my radar. Not that Villanova is some juggernaut, but this number is just way too high, especially the way we’ve seen bookmakers exaggerate home court advantage over the past few seasons. My numbers made this St. John’s -.5 (essentially a pick ‘em) and we are CATCHING 3 points. It’s at home, obviously. But also, it is LEGITIMATELY Villanova’s season. They aren’t really even in the conversation at this point, but a win over a top 10 team in the country would give them a chance with a great end to the regular season and possibly a deep run in the Big East Tournament. Let’s roll with another home dog; just too hard to pass up this number with Nova at home.

Official Pick: Villanova +3 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star