College Basketball Conference Tournament Best Bet
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 12, 2024 | 1:55 A.M. CST
This is the lone Conference Championship Bet that I myself will be betting a full unit. Therefore I wanted to give a summary of the pick.
UCONN to win Big East Tournament @ -135
When you look at all of the other major conferences, every single favorite is over priced. Houston is the favorite in the Big 12 at -135. When we really break it down, that number is absurdly high to lay. Houston is definitely the best team in that conference, & I doubt anyone would debate otherwise. However, the conference as a whole is just too deep for ANY team to be laying any juice. Winning three games for any team in this tournament is going to be extremely difficult. Two of the last three years (which is when this conference really emerged as the BEST in the country), the #1 seed did not win the tourney. I also just believe that the way Houston plays is good for a long season, but it’s not been a recipe for success in one-and-done elimination games. Can Houston win the Big 12 Conference Tourney? Yes, absolutely. But laying -135 is absurd. I give Houston a 38% chance to win it, so obviously not laying -135.
The Pac-12 Tourney has Arizona as a -160 favorite, which might be even crazier. Yes, the Pac-12 is by far weaker than any other power conference. However, the Wildcats are probably the most inconsistent top 10 team in the country. They have losses to Utah, Oregon State, and USC (none of which are tourney teams). In fact the only other at-large tournament team in the conference is Washington State, & the Cats got swept by the by the Cougars in the regular season.
We look at Purdue in the Big 10, currently at Even money. Purdue isn’t a horrible pick, largely due to their dominance this season as well as the Big 10 being down. However, their path is pretty tough. Their first game is likely to be Michigan State. Not only will the Spartans be desperate for a signature win to secure their tourney ticket, but they also matchup decently well with the Boilermakers. The second game for Purdue has a good chance of being Northwestern. In the two regular season meetings, Northwestern beat Purdue and took them to overtime in Mackey Arena (Purdue’s home gym). They are probably the team the Boilermakers match up the worst with, not to mention they have the best guard in the conference in Boo Bouie. And then in the final, if they get there, they would have to face Illinois for a third time. Not only is that a HUGE rivalry game, but Purdue beat the Illini in both meetings in the regular season. Illinois will be extremely fired up if they get one last shot at the Boilermakers.
In the ACC we have North Carolina as the favorite in the ACC at +135. Honestly, I just don’t trust the Tar Heels. I also don’t like that there is a good chance North Carolina plays Duke in the ACC Title. Although the Tarheels are a better team, playing their rival for a third team after beating them twice is going to be tough. Lastly, the SEC has Tennessee favored at +130.
In the SEC, Tennessee is a really good team. However, they are too offensively challenged at times to take to win three straight games in a tournament setting. They also play a style in which they foul on every possession, and that leaves them at the mercy of the officials on any given night. If they catch the officials on a night where the game is called tight, they can get into trouble really quick. But past all of that, the SEC is just too deep. I think the SEC borders the Big 12 in how tough it’s going to be to actually win this tournament, so only getting +130 isn’t good enough for me to believe in the Vols.
And, that leaves UCONN. The Big East regular season champs are -135 (Bovada) to win the Big East Tournament at MSG. The Huskies have a lot going for them going into this tournament. First, this team is the best team in the country, and I really do not think it’s close. I’ve been a believer that UCONN is way above everyone else all season, and they seem to be getting better every game they play. Additionally, I do NOT think the Big East is nearly as good as the Net and KenPom seem to think. And, when we look at UCONN’s potential path to the Title here, it’s extremely favorable. Game one is going to be the winner of Xavier and Butler. According to KenPom, the Huskies would be around a 17-18 point favorite against either team in that game. Their second game would be against the winner of St. John’s and Seton Hall. At this moment, UCONN would be roughly a 13 point favorite against St. John’s and a 15 point favorite against Seton Hall. I believe UCONN will win both of those games by 15+ and have a decent chance of covering the spread. So winning those games I doubt will be much of an issue.
That leaves ONE game. It could end up being Marquette, however Marquette is currently without star PG Tyler Kolek, and they’ve been a different team without him. UCONN went into Wisconsin and beat the Eagles by double digits a week ago. The more likely opponent would be Creighton in the finals. Against Creighton, KenPom would currently make UCONN a 7.5 point favorite. Thus, assuming UCONN does not get upset as 15+ point favorites, we would go into the championship game with a -135 ticket in a game that UCONN will likely be somewhere around -270. The value there alone makes this appealing. But then, we add in the spot factor. First, UCONN did not win the Big East Tournament last year. In fact they didn’t win the regular season nor did they win the Big East Tournament. Dan Hurley has openly stated that not winning either was something that really bothered them. They are going to be extremely focused and locked in to get that sweep of the Regular Season Title and Conference Tourney Title in route to trying to win a second straight National Title. Second, if the Huskies do get the BlueJays in the final, it’s going to be a spot where UCONN has revenge. Creighton handed UCONN it’s worst loss of the season (at full strength) a few weeks ago when the Huskies traveled to Omaha. So you can bet Dan Hurley and his squad are going to be motivated to hand Creighton a big time loss and win a Championship in the process.
Overall this is too much value to pass up. I’ve seen some spots dealing -150 and -160. I believe the true odds to be -210. So I will happily lay -135.
OFFICIAL PICK: UCONN To Win Big East Tournament -135
