College Basketball Best Bet (Thursday, 2/22/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 22, 2024 | 5:06 P.M. CST
This Week Summary: We’ve been off to a BLISTERING hot start this week. I believe we are 9-1 in our last 10 plays overall. Going back to last week 19-4 run. Obviously that run is incredible, but all good things will come to an end. It’s nearly impossible to keep up that pace, but the reality is that in the totality of the college basketball season I’ve finished above 65% 3 of the last 4 seasons. So we’re on a high right now, there may be a low coming soon, but we just stay the course and continue to pick WINNERS!!
Tonight’s Card: I thought last night’s card was average. Tonight’s card is real tough. There is just not a ton of actionable games tonight. I considered going to Minnesota, who has been a covering machine. Fading Ohio State following that emotional win over #2 Purdue doesn’t seem like a bad idea at all, however the number on that game is just too high for me. Minnesota has been undervalued most of the season and I think they’re a bit overpriced tonight - so we’re staying away from that one. Instead of a big conference, we are going to go to a much smaller game, but still two good teams.
Game: Grand Canyon Lopes (24-2) @ Tarleton State Texans (18-7)
Line: Grand Canyon -5 (-110) | Tarleton State +5 (-110)
Some places dealing 4.5, but you can still find plenty of 5 out there if you shop around
Location: Wisdom Gym, Stephenville, TX (Tarleton State Home Arena)
Time: 7:00 P.M. CST
Summary:
We are traveling to the Western Athletic Conference for our Best Bet tonight as we have the top two teams in the conference squaring off. Grand Canyon comes into this one as one of the best mid-major teams in the country. The Lopes come into this one 14-1 in conference play, with their lone loss coming at Seattle (3rd place team in the conference). Their lone non-conference loss came against South Carolina, an SEC team who was ranked as high as #11 in the country about a week ago. This is also a program that has experienced success in recent years, making two NCAA tournament appearances the past three seasons, although they were unable to secure a win in either of those tourneys. The two Grand Canyon teams that made the NCAA Tournament under Head Coach Bryce Drew had a respective 7 and 12 losses in their first and second trips to the Dance. This GCU team has just two losses with only a few games to play. So there is no doubt this Grand Canyon team is as legit as a team can be coming out of the WAC.
On the other side we have the second best team in the WAC in the Tarleton State Texans. The Texans come into this one playing some really good basketball. They are 11-3 in conference (2 games back in the loss column of GCU), and the Texans have won 8 of their last 9 games including 6 straight coming into this matchup. This is a massive game for the Texans if they want to have any shot of catching Grand Canyon in the regular season conference title race, and I believe it’s a pretty good spot for Tarelton State to pull off an upset.
When looking at the matchup the first key thing to look at is the home/road advantage for the Texans. First off, as good as Grand Canyon has been this season, they gotten to 14 conference wins by just running every team they play out of the gym. In fact, they’ve played their fair share of close games. Last time out they faced off against a Cal Baptist team that is in the middle of the pack in the WAC (7-7 in conference play) and they came out with just a 3-point victory, 79-76. At home against the third best team in the conference, the Lopes only defeated Seattle by 7. Both games they played against the 4th place team in the conference (UT Arlington) they won by just 6 and 7 points. And then we look at their road games. They lost to Seattle (their only conference loss) on the road by 7. They barely escaped Stephen F. Austin by two points, 53-51. So, again, I’m not saying GCU is bad on the road, but their distinctly worse than they are at home, where they carry one of the better home court advantages in the country.
Then we look at Tarleton at home where the Texans have been really solid the entirety of of this season. In conference play the Texans have just one home loss, which came against Southern Utah 7 games ago (the last loss they had overall). On the season the Texans are 9-2 at home overall, and they are 5-1 at home in conference play. What’s even more important though, is their two home losses this season have come by a total of 6 points (two 3 point losses). And again, we are catching 5 points in this spot. When we look at Tarleton’s Arena (Wisdom Gym), it’s relatively small. The arena holds just 3,000 fans, which can be an advantage if that place gets packed. Tarleton does a pretty good job getting fans to come out for big games. They had about 73% of the arena filled back in their last home game against SFA, and that is a team that is just middle of the pack in the conference. I believe the Texans are going to have a packed house tonight, as everyone knows how good Grand Canyon is. This absolutely feels like a spot where the crowd comes out, we have a really good home court environment, with a good home team getting way up to play the conference juggernaut. We basically saw this same exact thing last week when South Florida took on FAU at home in a massive conference game. South Florida, who has never packed their arena, sold that game out and had a crazy environment. The kids got up for the game, and South Florida was able to ride the crowd to a big upset over FAU. I see a similar outcome here tonight.
Last couple of notes of information here. Tarleton is coming off three straight road games. The other two times this season that the Texans have come back home after two or more road consecutive road games, they’re 2-0 in those games. Additionally, Grand Canyon is now traveling on the road after a three game home stand. The last time they went on the road following three straight home games this season, they suffered their lone loss in conference play this year to Seattle, 79-86. So everything here points to the Texans, which is why we are going to back them in this spot. The great thing is, we don’t need them to win the game outright as we are catching 5 points here. As I mentioned before, MAKE SURE to grab the best number. There is PLENTY of 5s out there. Get a +5 ticket. We have seen some professional money come in on the Texans here as well, which is why we went from 5.5 to 5 and even to 4.5 in some spots. Good luck and let’s keep this hot streak going baby!!
OFFICIAL PICK: TARLETON STATE +5 (-110)
