College Basketball Best Bet (2/21/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 21, 2024 | 5:03 P.M. CST
Note: I don’t love the college basketball slate tonight. I had a fantastic night and we’ve been on an absolute heater, so my instinct is to try to find something here, but there’s really only one play/spot that I really like tonight. Rather than push something that isn’t there, here’s my favorite play of the night, and we will find some more value later in the week hopefully!!
Game: UNLV Runnin’ Rebels @ Air Force Falcons
Line: UNLV -6 (-110) | Air Force +6 (-110)
Location: Clune Arena, Colorado Springs, CO (Air Force Home Arena)
Time: 9:00 P.M. CST
Game Summary:
Tonight the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels travel to Colorado Springs to take on the Air Force Falcons. It’s quite interesting how narrative in sports changes from year-to-year. About 11 months ago going into the NCAA Tournament, the narrative was that the Mountain West was not a very good conference, and once March hit they tended to struggle in the NCAA Tournament. After San Diego State put that narrative to bed with a run all the way to the National Title, this league is now one that many “talking heads” believe is one of the better conferences in the country. According to many bracketology experts, the MW is likely to get six bids into this years NCAA Tournament, and some even believe UNLV has a shot to make it seven, depending on how they finish the season.
One team that has no shot to make the NCAA tournament though, is the Air Force Falcons. They are the worst team in the Mountain West, sitting at an abysmal 1-11 in conference play (8-16 overall). Their lone win came against this very team they play in tonights matchup: UNLV. That game was by far the worst performance of the year from the Runnin’ Rebels, as they trailed Air Force by 15 at halftime, shot worse than 32% from the floor and 18% from downtown, and they lost the game by 32 points. That game came at home, and the Rebels were literally laughed off the court by their fans. It was an embarrassing performance by UNLV, no doubt, but let’s also look at the numbers for Air Force in that game. In that matchup, the Falcons knocked down 14 of 28 three-point attempts (50% from beyond the arc), and shot an incredible 68% eFG%. Now, the one thing Air Force does do well on the season is shoot the ball; they knock down 37% of their threes, and they shoot 54% eFG% on the season, but those numbers against UNLV in that game are still significantly higher than their season averages. All that considered, I would be shocked to see Air Force have a great shooting night in this spot. Not only are they unlikely to replicate their first matchup, but you know UNLV is going to come into this game motivated to knock off the Falcons in a big way, after that embarrassment they put on display a four weeks ago. This is a great spot for the Rebels.
After that terrible loss, UNLV really showed their mental toughness. A team unlikely to make the NCAA tournament at that point, coming off a 32 point loss to the worst team in the country, and their response was to go on a 5-game winning streak, which included going to the Pit in New Mexico and knocking off the ranked Lobos. In that stretch the Rebels were playing some outstanding basketball.
UNLV currently sits at 7-5, however they are one terrible call and a few plays away from having 10 conference wins. First off, playing against Utah State back in January, the Rebels led by 4 with just 11 seconds remaining. The game seemed to be at hand, as the commentator literally said “Utah State looking for a miracle.” As he said that, Utah State nailed a three with about 7 seconds left, and on the release of the shot a foul was called. The foul, though, was not on the shooter but away from the ball, which meant that not only did the three-pointer count, but the Aggies got to head to the line for a 1-and-1 and could actually take the lead. The college rule of allowing a 5-point play is already ridiculous, but if you were watching the game you also could see that it was one of the worst foul calls you’ve seen all year. Utah State went onto make BOTH free throws and win the game by 1. It was a game in which UNLV had a 99% probability of winning. Then we look at their most recent outing against rival Nevada. In that game UNLV had a 95% probability of winning as they led by double digits with under 10 minutes to play in the game. They also led by 7 with the ball with just 3 minutes to go. A really tough sequence of events squandered the game for UNLV and they dropped the game to Nevada by 3. Toss in a game at Colorado State in which they led by 4 with under 5 minutes to go, and they legitimately could have 10 wins. My overall point being, this team is not far off from being atop this conference that everyone seems so high on.
Next, let’s look at how the Rebels play on the road, as this is a true road game for them (and yes I hate taking road teams NORMALLY). Overall this season, the Runnin’ Rebels are 5-2 straight up in true road games. In conference play they are 4-2 on the road, and they are currently on a 3-game road winning streak, including a win at ranked (at the time) New Mexico. New Mexico has one of the better home court advantages in the country. In fact, their only two losses on the road this season came at San Diego State and at Colorado State, both of which are Top-25 ranked teams, with great home court advantages, and teams who are projected to be Top 6 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. And, as I mentioned earlier, the Rebels were a play or two away from winning at CSU, in which case they would be 6-1 on the road this season. Now they travel to Colorado Springs, for one of the worst home court advantages in college basketball. This is not going to be a gym that is rocking or even loud tonight. And even if it was, it wouldn’t matter, as the Rebels have been the best road team in the conference this season.
Lastly, UNLV is also coming off a loss here. On the season, the Rebels are 7-2 coming off a loss of any kind. I think it is also really important to note that they are coming off a heartbreaking loss to their rival Nevada. That game I discussed a little bit above, but the Rebels led by 8 at halftime. They led for the entirety of the second half, including by 7, with the ball, with 3 minutes to play. They also had gotten a stop, up by 1 with 45 seconds left, but allowed an offensive rebound and a bucket to lose the lead. Why is this important? Well, remember the heartbreaker mentioned above that they lost to Utah State in horrific fashion? Following that loss, this team went to Boise State and handed the Broncos their first home loss in 22 games. It was the nations longest home winning streak before UNLV pulled the upset. So this is a team that is extremely mentally tough, and they will be ready to go tonight after that tough beat against Nevada. They also have revenge on their mind as I mentioned before, which I think is important when trying to win by margin. I don’t think UNLV just wants to win this game, they want to win it by a lot.
Last Note: UNLV is also on the bubble for the NCAA Tourney. They are definitely a long shot for an at-large bid, but a second loss to 8-16 Air Force would 100% knock them completely out of contention. So this is also a big game just in terms of the totality of their season goals. For all those reasons, we’re going to fade the bad Falcons and back the solid UNLV RUNNIN’ REBELS on the road tonight to win and cover the 6.
OFFICIAL PICK: UNLV -6 (-110)
Units: 2
Make sure to check out my YOUTUBE Channel @Slobberknockersports for more content and video breakdowns of games. You can also check out our full sports podcast for weekly episodes. Thanks and good luck tonight!!
