College Basketball Best Bet (3/6/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 6, 2024 | 5:03 P.M. CST
Game: Iowa State vs. BYU
Line: Iowa State -7.5 | Iowa State -4 (1H) | Iowa State ML -300 | Iowa State -210
Summary:
I’ll just give my take on this game, because I’m still working through how to play this. I think Iowa State is going to win this game without a doubt. BYU is 3-6 straight up at home in conference play. Two of those road wins in the conference on the road came against two of the worst teams in the Big 12 (5 point win at UCF, 13 point win at WVU). The other win was their most recent outing where they went to Kansas and won the game outright in Alan Fieldhouse. To me that win is a fluke. It was an impressive win, without a doubt. But the truth is, it’s an outlier to how they have performed all season. They lost at Oki State who is the worst team in this conference. The lost by double digits at Kansas State, who’s 10th in the conference. They lost at Baylor, Tech, and OU as well, and none of those games were that close. They also lost their only road non-conference game at Utah earlier this year, who is likely not a tournament team.
Then you look at that Kansas game and it’s really important to point out a few things. Number one, Kansas is one of the least deep teams in the country; in fact, they probably have THE LEAST depth of any team in the power conferences. They have absolutely nobody who can play off the bench. Why is that important? Well Kevin McCullers Jr, their leading scorer did not play in that game against BYU. That forced grad senior Nicolas Timberlake into the starting lineup, who has been horrible this season. You also had Dejuan Harris playing on a less than 100% ankle as well, after he injured it a few games prior against Baylor. He’s not been the same since that injury, but he’s been forced to play through it because of their lack of depth. When you take those things into account, it really makes that road win a lot less impressive. It’s still a good win, don’t get me wrong. Going to Alan Fieldhouse regardless of who trots out there for KU is tough on any night. But I think BYU is getting a ton of credit for winning that game and in reality it was a solid win, but not some incredible performance. You also look at the box score of that game. Hunter Dickinson went 6/15 from the FT line in that game, including a few BIG misses late, where he missed both in key moments in the final 5 minutes. He’s a 74% free throw shooter on the year when you remove that game. So that is worth noting as well, that a good free throw shooter, at home, really struggled. If he goes 12/15, it’s a different game. Even 10/15 it might’ve swung KU’s way. As a team Kansas missed 12 free throws in that game, and shot 61% from the charity stripe. Kansas isn’t elite at the line on the season, but they do shoot north of 73% overall. So again, the ball bounced BYU’s way pretty significantly in that game.
Then you look at Iowa State at home. They are 17-0 straight up. In conference play, they’ve beaten each of the other top 5 teams in the conference: Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech, and Baylor. The Houston and Kansas games are really their only close home games they’ve played all season, and we know how good Houston is. Kansas faced ISU when the Jayhawks were playing much better and when they were 100% healthy. It doesn’t really require much more of a breakdown - Iowa State has one of the best home court advantages in all of college basketball.
Then you factor in the travel. BYU being in Utah, having to travel to Iowa is a long way from home. It’s farther than the majority of their conference games (Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas make up half the conference).
You then factor in the revenge aspect. This is the worst loss Iowa State suffered all year - BYU destroyed them in their earlier matchup this season. You have to believe the revenge aspect is on the side of the Cyclones here. I don’t think revenge is always the right way to look at a game. Sometimes a team just matches up well with you. I don’t see that as the case here.
One issue that I will bring up is that Iowa State defends the three-ball well in terms of percentages, but in terms of quantity & quality of shots they can give up 3s at times. BYU is a high volume, three-point shooting team. That might bother me here, but I think the issue is that the first time these teams played BYU made 13 threes and won by 17. So I just have to imagine there’s going to be a shift in the gameplan for this specific game from the Iowa State side of things. It would just absolutely shock me if BYU came out and made a ton of threes in this one. I am fairly certain Iowa State is going to make BYU beat them driving to the basket.
How to Play This:
I’m struggling with deciding how to play this game. I think Iowa State is going to win relatively easily. The issue is that the number has gotten away from us here at 7.5. It opened at an incorrect 5, before quickly correcting to 6.5. Since then, it’s been bet up a full point. There’s been significant professional support for the Cyclones. But I don’t quite know that I want to lay 7.5 points vs a team that is prolific scoring the ball. Even though ISU has tended to cover this number at home this season, with a few exceptions, and BYU has tended to lose by more than this number when they do lose. I just can’t bring myself to lay 7.5
So I’m deciding between a few things. The ML price is high to lay for sure, and I’m hesitant to lay -325. That said, in order to lay -325 you need to have a win percentage of over 75.6% to be able to be profitable. I make this an 82.8% chance that Iowa State wins this game at home. So mathematically it actually does make sense to lay this price. I’m just not inclined to lay that normally. Long story long I just don’t know how I want to play Iowa State but I like them a lot here. If there’s another favorite you like to win tonight you could parlay them ML and get it to under -200. If you think ISU will come out well, you could lay -4 in the first half or even lay -200 moneyline. Iowa State has led at halftime of every home game in conference play, and the least they’ve led by at halftime is 4. BYU has also started slow lately. They were really good in the first half early in the season. But they’ve trailed in 4 of their last 5 games at halftime, and all 4 of those games were by 4 or more. So that feels like the best value probably. I may lay -4 in the first half or ML in the first half, and if it wins great. If it loses I can come back live and take ISU at a good price in the second.
Play ISU somehow.
