College Basketball A-Sun Tourney Pick (3/7/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 7, 2024 | 5:53 P.M. CST

Pick: North Alabama to Win Conference Tourney at +550

Summary: This is a case of mispriced odds in my opinion. We are currently sitting in the semi-finals of the A-Sun tourney (4 teams left), with the semi-finals being played tonight, and yet North Alabama is still at +550 to win the tournament. The A-Sun tourney has been absolutely wacky so far with 2 of the top 3 seeds going down before the semi-finals. #6 Seed North Alabama beat Lipscomb at the buzzer last night, who was the #3 seed in the tournament, although I think Libscomb was the best and most dangerous team in that tournament. Then we had #10 seed Jacksonville pull off the stunning upset of #1 Eastern Kentucky. So in one foul swoop, we have the #1 and #3 seeds gone. This leaves the #2, #4, #6, and #10 seeds battling for a trip to the Big Dance (where they will almost certainly be in a 16-seed First Four Game).

Regardless, when you look at this price, you have to ask yourself, okay what does this team have to do? They have to win two games. In order to cash the ticket, you’d have to have them pull off an upset tonight over #4 Seed Austin Peay tonight as 3.5 point dogs. Then win in the championship game over the winner of Stetson and Jacksonville. Well, first let’s look at tonight’s matchup. Austin Peay barely survived last night, needing overtime to take down #5 seed North Florida. It’s also important to note that Austin Peay is a team that really lacks depth, and they had 3 starters play 43+ minutes last night. Now they have to comeback and play the next night against a team who just upset the hottest team in the conference. So we’ve seen this number come down a touch already.

Now let’s say North Alabama pulls off a win tonight as a short dog. Who would they face in the finals? Well they could face #2 Stetson, in which case they would likely be a short underdog of about 4 points. However, they beat Stetson by 7 in their lone meeting this year, a game that North Alabama actually closed as a 2.5 point favorite. So if you win the game tonight, that’s WORST case. Now you are holding a +550 ticket, in a game where the odds are going to be somewhere close to +140 or +150. On the other hand, if Jacksonville upsets Stetson, now you have that same +550 ticket as a favorite, likely of around 3-4 points. All of the sudden you not only have a +550 ticket, but you also have an opportunity to hedge back for your initial investment (play Jacksonville at +135) and you are basically going to either make .35 units or make 4.5 units. That’s best case scenario. But essentially you either would have a super valuable ticket, or an arbitrage opportunity. It’s also not out of the realm of possibility that Jacksonville wins tonight. Although Stetson should pull it out, Jacksonville just upset the #1 seed Eastern Kentucky. They also are only a 6 point dog tonight in that game, so it isn’t as if the game is expected to be a complete blowout.

So my suggestion here is to play North Alabama +550. Play it for just one unit. There’s just too much value here at +550 in a conference with just 4 teams left to play, all of which are separated by 6 points or less from a point spread perspective.

Take NORTH ALABAMA +550 to win the A-Sun Tournament