College Basketball Weekly Summary (2/9/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 9, 2025 | 1:53 A.M. CST

Best Bets Summary (2/3/25-2/9/25)

• Monday

  • Wins

    • UAB -2 vs. North Texas (Final Score: UAB 64, North Texas 61): UAB came into this game the hottest team in the American, not named Memphis, while North Texas came in after losing at home to a subpar UTSA team. These two teams were battling for 2nd place in the American, and I liked UAB with the home court edge, coming in with tons of confidence. Overall, it was a very tight game, but UAB led most of the way; the box score was pretty dead even, but the difference came on the offensive glass, where UAB finished +4 (an area they are elite, and I touched on in my breakdown). UAB pulled it out by 3 and was able to win and cover for us.

  • Losses: None

  • Monday Record: 1-0 (100%)

• Tuesday:

  • Wins: None

  • Pushes

    • Northwestern -2 vs. USC (Final Score: NW 77, USC 75): This was a really brutal push to swallow on Tuesday night. I really liked this play, and it absolutely WAS the right side all night long. Northwestern led by 15 (59-44) with UNDER 10 minutes to play in the game. But just as they took that double digit lead, their leading scorer in the game, Jalen Leach, went down with a knee injury, and was out for the game. NW is not deep at all, after losing their starting PG for the year last week. So a young player who hadn’t played much this year was forced into action, and he clearly wasn’t ready to be in that moment. USC began trapping the ball and leaving him wide open, and after a few mistakes his confidence dropped so low he caught (with NOBODY on him) multiple times and just waited for a defender to recover. The same player fouled three separate times on three point shots in the final 4 minutes of the game, twice resulting in and-one threes. Still, with all that, NW led by 6 with under a minute to play, and by 4 with 30 seconds. Down 4 with 30 seconds, though, one of those and one threes hit, which led to a tie game. NW had the ball and was able to take the last shot which they hit; even here was tough, because Martenelli (NW’s best player) was absolutely fouled on the make which should’ve been an and one and given NW a free throw to cover. I will always admit when I take the wrong side when evaluating the picks; this was not one of those. This was the right side, and an unlucky push.

  • Losses

    • BYU -2 vs. Arizona (Final Score: Arizona 85, BYU 74): Speaking of being on the wrong side, we were on the wrong end here. Arizona was the side all night. The two teams were tied at halftime, and it BYU had hung in there. But it was clear early that Caleb Love was on a heater; and he has been for multiple games. Since hitting the half court shot against ISU he’s been much less streaky. I knew at that point this was in trouble. BYU did make a late push and actually had the lead in the second half, but every time they made a run, Arizona answered. Funny enough, this Arizona team looked LOST early in the year. Tommy Lloyd really turned this ship around and has Arizona looking like a legit contender. BYU lost again today to a bad Cincinnati team on the road, and they look back to reality after a 4-game win streak. Regardless, this was the wrong side; good win for Arizona. Remind me never to back the Mormons again (JK).

  • Tuesday Record: 0-1-1 (0%)

• Wednesday:

  • Wins

    • Washington (1H) -1 vs. Nebraska (First Half Score: Washington 47, Nebraska 37): I talked about this in the preview, but I liked this Huskies team and the way they were trending. However, they tend to fall apart late. They have some talent in the starting 5, but they have absolutely no depth and their best player is a big man who is often forced to play too many minutes. He often struggles late in games and it hurts the Huskies. Nebraska, on the other hand, really struggles on the road. I considered Washington full game, but considering their lack of depth and the fact that Nebraska was off a big win, I decided to go first half, and thankfully so. Washington won the first half easily, before falling apart entirely in the second half and losing by double digits. Got the win to go 1-1 on the night.

  • Losses

    • UCF ML vs. Cincinnati (Final Score: Cincinnati 93, UCF 83): I really felt like this was a get right spot for UCF. They were coming off back to back tough losses to Kansas and BYU. The loss to KU was on the road, and they played really well, just couldn’t finish the job. The BYU game the Knights played very well for 3/4ths of the game and once again lost it in the final few minutes. Considering this was a home game, and a MUST win for their season against one of the bottom teams in the Big 12, I did not think they lay an egg. But, that’s exactly what they did (at least defensively). Allowing Cinci to put up 93 points is absurd, especially considering they shot 58.5% from the field. It was a terrible performance for the Knights, and it pretty much sealed their season fate, missing the NCAA Tourney. Avoiding that loss would’ve gone a long way. I was high on this UCF team early in the year, but this was one you just couldn’t drop. Wrong side, wrong pick.

  • Wednesday Record: 1-1 (50.0%)

• Thursday

  • Wins

    • Ohio State -1 vs. Maryland: I tend to be on the wrong end of some pretty brutal beats each year (I’d say 4 to 1 ratio on bad beats to lucky wins). This wasn’t a bad beat for those who had Maryland, however, it was a fortunate win. Maryland was the right side for most of the game. Ohio State trailed by 10 late in the game, before going on a big run. The Buckeyes ended up with the ball in a tie game with the shot clock turned off. Bruce Thornton, a veteran Buckeye guard, had the ball in his hands with the clock running down. Good defense from the Terps forced Thornton to shoot a very tough stepback three, and Thornton BANKED it in. The Buckeyes pulled out a lucky victory after trailing most of the night, and we pulled out a nice 1-0 night to bounce back after two tough nights.

  • Losses: None

  • Thursday Record: 1-0 (100%)

• Friday

  • Wins: None

  • Losses

    • UCONN -3 vs. St. John’s (Final Score: St. John’s 68, UCONN 62): UCONN came into this game really needing this win to stay in the hunt in the Big East, especially considering it was against the team atop the Big East. The Huskies also got back Liam McNeeley, their 5-star freshman, who had been out for over a month with a high ankle sprain. With McNeely back in the lineup, the Huskies came out absolutely on fire, and jumped all over the Johnnies. They led pretty much the entirety of the game until about 8 minutes to go. But, St. John’s went on a huge run late in the game, and once they seized the lead they never gave it back. They won the game outright, and UCONN proved they are just not going to be any sort of contender this season. Dan Hurley was the hottest ticket in town 10 months ago, and now he is climbing towards being unlikable. St. John’s on the other hand may be a team to be reckoned with in the tournament if they can overcome their inability to knock down threes.

  • Friday Record: 0-1 (0%)

• Saturday

  • Wins

    • Clemson +7.5 vs. Duke (Final Score: Clemson 77, Duke 71): This was probably my favorite play of the day, and it proved to be the right side. I gave this out on the early bird plays, knowing it would move. We got in at +7.5 and this closed +6 (obviously covered both) Clemson trailed much of the first half, but never got down more than 9. They kept in striking distance, pounded it inside, and wore Duke down over 40 minutes. The Tigers DOMINATED the glass (36-23, +13, & +3 on ORBs), as well as points in the paint (40-23). The Tigers also shot the lights out (58.8% FGs & 40% 3FGs). All those things led to an OUTRIGHT win for Clemson over #2 Duke, ending the Blue Devils undefeated run in ACC play.

    • Kansas State +4.5 vs. Kansas (Final Score: K-State 81, Kansas 73): It was weird to say that a team coming in 11-11 with a losing record in conference was trending up, while a team coming in 16-7 (7-4 in Conference) was trending down; but, that was the case. K-State came in on a 4-game win streak, and they were catching 4.5 against KU. This Jayhawks team just isn’t what we expected, and backing the home dog in a crazy environment proved to be the right call. KU’s road woes continue and K-State got the OUTRIGHT win.

    • Kentucky -10.5 vs. South Carolina (Final Score: UK 80, South Carolina 57): This one was simple, as UK came in 1-4 in their last 5, off back to back losses. But all of those losses came to tournament teams, and 3 of the 4 came without their starting PG in Lamont Butler. He returned today, which provided a spark. They also were in a comfortable home environment against a very bad South Carolina team, who is highly offensively challenged. The Gamecocks couldn’t keep up, and they were catching an angry Kentucky team due for a good performance. Easy win here

    • Creighton -1 vs. Marquette (Final Score: Creighton 77, Marquette 67): There are some teams that you back in certain spots almost regardless of roster, price, and year. The Bluejays in a home Big East game against a ranked team laying 3 points or less is one of those teams. That met all the criterea here. The Bluejays also came in winners of 5 straight, and Marquette was coming off back to back losses AND playing a second straight road game, after a loss to St. John’s earlier this week. I gave this out as an early bird play at -1. It closed Creighton -3 and we covered both numbers easily with a double digit victory.

    • UTSA +1.5 vs. East Carolina (Final Score: ECU 80, UTSA 79): This was a wild game all the way through. UTSA led for almost the entirety of the first half, and a good chunk of the second half. After a back and forth last 10 minutes, the Roadrunners looked to have won this outright. They led by 4 with 25 seconds to play, and got a stop. They got the ball in and just had to get fouled, but they turned it over and ECU turned it into an and one layup. After making the FT, UTSA led by 1, but turned it over AGAIN. ECU trailed by one and hit a pretty lucky floater from 10 feet to take a one point lead. Trailing by one we were covering, and luckily time expired on the final shot. It did not go in and UTSA lost by 1. Luckily a loss for them was still a win for us +1.5. Runners gave us our 5th victory of the day.

    • Washington -1 (1H) vs. Northwestern (First Half Score: Washington 39, NW 30): This was the second time I backed the Huskies this week, both times at home in the first half, and both times were easy winners. This Washington team has some talent, starting with their Utah State transfer in Great Osobor, however they aren’t deep whatsoever. They had been playing much better lately, but had run out of gas for that very reason in a number of games. We won on them earlier in the week as they led Nebraska big at halftime, earning us an easy win. However, they blew that game and lost outright. Last night the Huskies did the EXACT same thing, leading by 9 at halftime, getting up as many as 14, and losing the entire lead. However, they were able to pull the game out anyways. But, glad it was stress free for us and we had the first half. Also was fun to watch Chris Collins (NW Head Coach) get tossed in the first half. This was the last play of the day, and it was a great way to cap off a great day in college hoops.

  • Losses:

    • Florida Atlantic @ Tulsa OVER 149.5 (Final Score: FAU 79, Tulsa 55): This one is hard to explain. I have to admit this was one game I didn’t watch today. I watch most games live (5 TVs at once + 2 Computers + 1 phone). However, this was an ugly game I didn’t have an interest in. I will go back and watch to see if I can gain any information about either team from it. Looking at the box score, both teams shot below their season average from the FT line, and both teams got to the free throw line significantly less than usual (30 combined FTs btw two teams). I guess I overlooked how bad Tulsa is shooting 3s. I believed that considering FAU is one of the worst 3FG defense in the country, Tulsa would likely shoot somewhere in the range of 33%-35% (slightly above season numbers); instead, they shot an abysmal 14.3% (3/21). If they even shoot just their season average, which is below 33%, and both teams shoot their season average on FTs, this game goes over. I also would say I overlooked Tulsa’s pace. I knew they played slower, but I figured if FAU got ahead, Tulsa would be forced to play with more pace. That wasn’t the case, as FAU had a big lead and Tulsa still just could not score on a bad defense. Regardless, the total missed, but that was our only early day loss.

    • Missouri -2.5 vs. Texas A&M (Final Score: Texas A&M 67, Missouri 64): I gave this one out as an early bird pick. And we got way ahead of a line move, which was great; I got in at 2.5 and it closed MIZ -4.5. Missouri got absolutely jumped on from the start of this game, and it looked like A&M could run away with it. But, that’s the thing about backing home teams; even in games you probably should lose, USUALLY the crowd can will you back into it. That’s what happened here as Missouri trailed by as many as 12 in the first half, and stormed back behind their crowd to take a 5 point lead with under 8 minutes to play. It really felt like the Tigers had all the. momentum and were going to find a way to win this thing, especially after Wade Taylor IV picked up his 4th foul with 10 minutes to go. But A&M is a gutsy team and hung in there with Taylor on the bench; and then when he came back in they regained the lead. It looked like we were headed for OT, which would’ve given us a real shot; tied with 10 seconds left. But Wade Taylor hit a dagger three with 2.8 left. Caleb Grill nearly hit a half court shot to send it to OT at the buzzer, but it just missed. Overall, A&M was definitely the right side here, but Missouri also had one of their worst shooting nights of the year. Chalk this one up to that, because although A&M is good defending the perimeter, they were fortunate Caleb Grill couldn’t buy a three; there were plenty of good looks Mizzou just missed. Regardless, 6-2 overall on the day is phenomenal.

  • Saturday Record: 6-2 (75.0%)

• OVERALL WEEK RECORD: 9-5-1 (64.3%)

Updated Season Overall Record: 38-17 (69.1%)