NFL Playoff Best Bet (Divisional Round)
Author: Dylan Lieck | January 16, 2025 | 4:42 P.M. CST
Best Bet
2 Team, 6 Point Teaser: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 & Buffalo Bills +7.5
We are going back to the well with another playoff teaser. My teasers have been perfect over the past 7 weeks so let’s keep the streak going. Keep in mind, the BILLS number here is the most important thing. We need the Bills at +7.5 & it’s worth it to lay -120 at a 6.5 point teaser if necessary. There are plenty of Bills +1.5 out there. If you can get the Bills to +7.5 and the Chiefs are -2, that’s fine as well. In that case, don’t use a 6.5 point teaser, as Chiefs -1.5 is nearly identical, value wise, to Chiefs -2.
Overall, these are simple plays. The Kansas City Chiefs are a significant mismatch for the Houston Texans, who really struggled offensively against the LA Chargers. The scoreboard shows a blowout, but that game was anything but close for the majority of the contest. The Texans trailed 6-0 & the Chargers had the ball inside the Texans 40-yard line late in the second quarter. Had Justin Herbert not thrown a horrible interception, there’s a decent chance the Chargers go into halftime up 9-0 or possibly 13-0. Then, even on the ensuing drive, the Texans were facing a 3rd and 16 and CJ Stroud dropped the snap. The ball miraculously bounced back up to him in stride and instead of throwing it away he kept the play alive and found a receiver for 36 yards. That play truly sparked the Texans offense, as they went onto score a TD on that drive. Now, kudos to the Texans defense for keeping them in the game while the offense struggled. However, the game really went completely sideways in the third quarter when two dropped passes led to a pick-six and another pick that was nearly returned for a TD. Those two plays essentially ended the game for all intents & purposes. Regardless, this is just an incredibly difficult matchup for the Texans. They are not equipped, from a talent standpoint, to beat this KC team AT HOME, let alone in the cold of Arrowhead. The score may end up within the 7.5 points, but it will not be close.
Leg number two, we’re going to the Buffalo Bills +7.5. Honestly, I’d take either of these teams above a TD in this game, as I expect this to be a very tight, one-score game. However, I prefer the Bills over the Ravens. I actually make this game Bills -2. And I considered giving out the Bills +1 as a best bet as well (I still might). But there’s a very small chance that this game is a blowout either way. The Bills are a perfect 9-0 at home this season, 15-2 the last two years, and the two losses have both come by less than 7. So, the Ravens would have to do something that hasn’t been done in a LONG TIME; beat the Bills with Josh Allen in Buffalo by 2 scores. I just don’t see that happening. I think this is the Bills year. But, even if it’s not, I see the Ravens winning a close game if it doesn’t go Buffalo’s way. So we’re taking the best of the number and getting this above a TD for leg number 2.
Official Pick: KC Chiefs -1.5 + Buffalo Bills +7.5
Play Rating: 3-Star
