Moneyline Parlay of the Day
Author: Dylan Lieck | March 1, 2025 | 4:01 P.M. CST
I started posting these the other day. They started off as an experiment (still are), but I started 5-1 with them, so I decided to post them for fun. They are NOT an official play like my best bets. They are more of something you could play for a few extra bucks for fun. I come up with 3-5 teams (sometimes more) that combined have greater than 60% chance of winning. For that to be profitable the juice can’t be hire than -150. So the highest juice I will give out on one of these is -150. I would say on average the juice is going to be closer to -110 (52.4% to break even). Our edge is greater, the greater the spread between the juice and the overall probability of winning all 3-5 games. Meaning, if we have a 65% probability of winning, and the juice is 10% (-110), then we have an edge of +12.6% (65%-52.4%). That edge would be greater, than say a 70% chance of winning at -150 juice, which would be a +10.0% edge (70% win probability minus 60% breakeven point for -150 juice). So I will try to provide you with my calculated edge, in case you are playing these. That way you can gauge how strong the play is. Again, don’t play these as a regular best bet. But you may throw a few extra bucks more on a parlay that I give at a 15% edge vs. one that I give at a 5% edge. Okay, enough explaining; the plays are below.
Moneyline Favorite Parlay Picks:
1) Iowa State -275 vs. Arizona: This is a ranked vs. ranked matchup, but I actually think the line is significantly low. Because Iowa State hasn’t been in great form lately, I didn’t pull the trigger on them as a best bet at -5.5. But I DO think they’ll cover that number. Arizona has been putrid lately. They were not good to start the year, but got hot in the middle of conference play. However, the Wildcats are just 2-4 over their last 6 games. Iowa State is one of the best home teams in the country. They carried a 29-game home winning streak prior to losing to K-State at home a couple weeks ago. And, lastly the spot is great; ISU needs this win to get back on track. And, the first time these teams played Arizona hit a 3/4ths court shot to send the game to overtime. They went on to win the game in the extra period. ISU has had this one circled for a while.
Win Probability: 83.8%
2) Baylor -1000 vs. Oki State: This one is simple. While OKST has played better over the second half of conference play, they are NOT a good basketball team. They have no tournament aspirations, and they are a TERRIBLE road team. The Pokes have lost 8 straight road games in conference play, and have not won a game on the road all year in the Big 12. They also have not won back-to-back games in Big 12 play all year, and they come into this game off a big home upset of Iowa State. Baylor, on the other hand, has been reeling as of late. Once a top 15 ranked team, they have dropped all the way to a projected 9-seed in the Big Dance. Their last two games are at TCU and home against Houston (both games they will be an underdog more than likely). If they lose this game at home to a bad Oki State team, they could be in serious danger of missing the tournament. They have to much talent on that roster and Scott Drew is too good a coach to have that happen. There’s a high probability they secure a home victory tonight.
Win Probability: 84.5%
3) St. Mary’s -900 vs. Oregon State: St. Mary’s has been elite this year in conference play. They are 16-1, undefeated at home in WCC games, and they are undefeated at home through the entirety of conference play (8-0). They already beat Oregon State by double digits on the road. This St. Mary’s team is for real. They will have no trouble at home, and they’ll finish off their final home game in style, taking care of the Beavers easily.
Win Probability: 93.1%
4) BYU -600 vs. West Virginia: These are two teams headed in opposite directions. WVU has been reeling since the loss of their best player, Tucker DeVries, and they are very likely to miss the NCAA Tournament. BYU on the other hand is playing their best ball of the season. They’ve won 5 straight games, including a dominating home win over the Kansas Jayhawks by 34 points. They also went into Arizona and knocked off the Wildcats in last weekend. Playing at BYU is tough enough. But add that the game is at night, and the fact that BYU is playing well and this is an impossible spot for WVU, who already lost AT HOME to this Cougars team a couple weeks back. WVU also has not won a road game since February 2nd, when they won at Cinci. This will be an easy win for the Cougars, as they will continue to climb up that seed line in the Big Dance.
Win Probability: 89.2%
Parlay Edge:
4-Team Parlay Odds: -106 (B.E. Point = 51.46%)
Overall Win Probability: 58.81%
Overall Edge: +7.35%
