College Hoops Best Bets (2/18/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 18, 2025 | 4:21 P.M. CST
Overall Record: 44-21 (Last Night’s Play = Push)
Best Bets:
1) Mississippi State -2.5 vs. Texas A&M
This Mississippi State team is one of the weirder teams in the country this season. They started off the year 14-1, with some really impressive wins. They had 3 great road wins in their first 15 games: at SMU by 5, at Memphis by 13, and at Vanderbilt by 12 (all 3 are NCAA tournament teams). However, after the 14-1 start, they ran into that SEC gauntlet that so many teams have struggled with. The Bulldogs are just 4-6 in their last 10 games. That said, all of their losses in that stretch came against Top 20 teams, and 5 of those 6 came against teams who were ranked in the top 10 at the time of each matchup. The Texas A&M Aggies on the other hand, come into this game 20-5 (9-3, SEC) and currently riding a 5-game win streak (7-1 in last 8 games).
Part of the reason we are going to back the Bulldogs in this spot is looking at these two teams results. Mississippi State is traditionally very good at home; KenPom has them ranked 13th best in terms of home court advantage value to the point spread (3.9 points). However, MSST has lost 3 consecutive games at The Hump (their home gym). That said, those losses came to Florida, Alabama, and Missouri, three of the best teams in the conference, and two of the best 5 teams in the country. While A&M DOES come into this game ranked 7th in the AP Poll, the Aggies are actually ranked just 13th in KenPom. Not to say that KenPom is the end-all, be-all, but my numbers tend to agree more with KP than with the current top 25 “rankings.” I have A&M currently ranked as the 12th best team in the country; while, I have Florida 2nd, and Alabama 4th. Then you look at the Aggies road performances. They won at South Carolina by just 4 points (SC is winless in SEC play). They beat Ole Miss by 1; however, if you watched that game, the Aggies had no business winning. They trailed the entire way, including by 5 with under 30 seconds to play, and won in very flukey fashion due to Ole Miss missing the front end of a one-and-one and Obaseke nailing basically a buzzer beater from 3. And, they lost to both Kentucky and Texas on the road; two teams ranked LOWER than Mississippi State in my rankings. Their one impressive road win was against Missouri, and again that game could’ve gone either way. Mississippi State hasn’t lost 4 consecutive times at home in a long time, and the Aggies are due for a road loss. The Hump will be absolutely rocking tonight as the #7 ranked Aggies come into Starkville. And I like that State is going to be motivated to get a signature home victory.
While both teams come into this game sqaurely in the NCAA tournament, MSST definitely has more at stake. A&M currently sits 4th in the SEC, with a one game lead over Mizzou. However, the Aggies have the head to head advantage over Mizzou, giving them a little bit of extra cushion. They also get 3 of their final 5 games at home, and one of their two road games is at LSU (bottom of SEC), so they have a favorable path to a top 4 seed. Meanwhile, MSST currently sits in a tie for 8th in the SEC. However, considering UK beat MSST in their only head-to-head matchup, MSST really sits in 9th place. Why is that important? Because the top 8 teams in the SEC get a first round bye in the SEC tournament. It’s a big difference being in that 8th spot vs. 9th. Additionally, although MSST has some good wins on their schedule, they are 0-5 against Top 10 teams this year. This will be their 6th try, and their 3rd try at home. That said, the teams that have BEAT THEM in those matchups were all much better offensive teams than this Aggie group. While they do have some dynamic guards in Wade Taylor IV and Zhuric Phelps, they are a below average P5 offensive team. And, specifically a TERRIBLE shooting team. This A&M team is 292nd in the COUNTRY in Effective FG%, 306th in 3FG% (31.2%), 256th in 2FG% (49.2%), and 295th in FT% (68.4%). They rely heavily on their defense and on the offensive glass. And while MSST isn’t the greatest shooting team in the world either, they do rank in the top 35 in 2FG%. If MSST can keep A&M off the glass tonight, and have a relatively efficient shooting night from inside the arc, I think they have a very good shot of winning this game and covering the number.
Let’s ride with the home team here in this spot, as I think the Bulldogs get their signature top-10 win tonight in Starkville over the Aggies. Take Mississippi State -2.5
Official Pick: Mississippi State -2.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
2) Wisconsin -3.5 vs. Illinois
This Wisconsin team really impressed me over the weekend. I took Purdue at home at Mackey Arena, laying 5.5 points against the Badgers, and I really liked the play. While Purdue flirted with getting it to double digits in the first half, Wisconsin refused to allow that to happen, and even cut it to 1 heading into halftime. At about the 15 minute mark of the 2nd half, the Badgers seized COMPLETE control of the game, and from there Purdue never had a shot, in their own damn building. And it wasn’t because Purdue played terrible; it was because Wisconsin was really good. They have some dynamic guards, they have some solid bigs, they play hard, and they’re deep. It’s a hard combination to beat, and it’s why I’ve moved them up into the top 10 of my power rankings.
The Badgers also have only lost ONE home game all season, and it was months ago at home to Michigan (by just 3 points). On the other hand, 4 of Illinois losses this season have come on the road. And the Fighting Illini are just 1-3 in their last 4 road games in Big 10 play. They also lost their last game, Saturday, at home to Michigan State; a game they led by double digits much of the first half. Not only did the Illini blow the lead, they ended up losing by double digits, and they did so in UGLY fashion. Illinois finished the game a staggering ZERO for their last 20 shots. That’s right, they missed 20 consecutive shots to close the game. That stat alone, gives me confidence to back the Badgers here. You’re getting the better overall team, playing at home, against a team really lacking confidence at the moment. I understand how the market works, but this number is off. Wisconsin should be at least a 5.5 point favorite here. So it’s a good home/away matchup, we are getting significant value, and we’re taking the home team.
One last thing I want to mention that favors Wisconsin is the style and efficiency of these two teams. The way Illinois plays is one of the more baffling things I’ve watched over the past half-decade in college basketball. The Illini come into this game shooting an abysmal 31.1% from 3FGs, which is 308th in the country. For reference there are 364 total teams in D1 College Basketball. So they are one of the absolute WORST three point shooting teams in the country. However, for some reason, they are 27th in 3FGA rate; meaning, they take threes at a top 30 rate in college basketball (47.1% of their FGAs are 3FGAs). Again, that would make sense in today’s day & age IF the Illini were a decent to good 3 point shooting team. But being as bad as they are and continuing to launch that many triples, just does not make any sense. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is an excellent shooting team from both three and inside the arc. They shoot it over 5.5% better from beyond the arc than Illinois. Additionally, Wisconsin comes in 1st in the COUNTRY in FT% at 83.7%. Illinois comes in outside the top 50 in that category. And lastly, the one thing Illinois does REALLY well is crash the offensive glass. They rely heavily on offensive rebounds to keep them in games, and get them more shots due to the fact that they are highly inefficient. However, Wisconsin is excellent at keeping teams off the offensive glass. They are 44th in the country in ORB% defense. While that isn’t ELITE, it’s solid. And I believe it will be enough to keep the Illini at bay on the offensive glass.
Let’s back the home team here as well, laying way too short of a number. Badgers win this by double digits.
Official Pick: Wisconsin -3.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
