College Hoops Best Bet (2/10/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 10, 2025 | 4:19 P.M. CST
Season Record: 39-17 (69.4%)
Best Bet: Clemson -4.5 vs. North Carolina
Going into the weekend North Carolina was one of Joe Lunardi’s “Next 4 Out”. Technically they were the 6th team out. However, after beating Pittsburgh at home in a very tight game, they will surely move up slightly. They will likely be one of the “Last 4 Out” when Lunardi updates his bracket tomorrow. Regardless, this is not your typical North Carolina team, as we have become accostumed to the Tar Heels being in the NCAA tournament every season. Under Roy Williams UNC made the tournament all but one time in 18 seasons (excluding the COVID year where no tourney was played). Since Hubert Davis took over, the program has been far less consistent. The first year Davis led the program, the Tarheels had a very subpar season and got in the NCAA Tournament as just an 8-seed. However, they made an improbable run to the NCAA National Championship, where they lost to the Kansas Jayhawks. That year they finished the season 24-9, and were never ranked higher than 18. The following season the Tarheels opened the year as the NUMBER ONE overall team in the country, and yet they missed the NCAA Tournament entirely. Last year they finished the season extremely well and got in as a #1 seed, only to get upset in the Sweet 16. And now this year, the Tarheels looked to be in serious danger of missing the NCAA Tournament. My point being, this team has been quite inconsistent under Hubert Davis from year to year, but also from week to week.
Now, UNC did return some talent from the team last season that was a #1 seed, including leading scorer RJ Davis. Davis’ PPG have dropped nearly 4 per contest this year, and he’s been much less efficient than in years past. His three point percentage this season is the worst of his entire career (under 32%), while his FG% has dropped to the lowest number since his freshman season. Davis’ struggles have been a big reason the Tarheels haven’t been nearly as good as expected. However, the issue is, it’s not just one thing that’s plaguing the Tarheels; across the board they are just down this season. Losing Armando Baycott has cost them big time inside the paint, as they have no reliable big men when going up against good competition. Additionally, the guards/forwards that DID comeback have improved, but not at the rate expected. For example, Elliott Cadeau returned. His knock was his inability to shoot effectively, shooting just 19% from three last season and 64% from the FT line. This year he’s up 3 PPG on his average, and he’s improved his three point shooting and FTs. The PROBLEM is that he still only shoots 30% from beyond the arc, and he’s a sub-70% FT shooter.
Clemson, on the other hand, lost PJ Hall, their best player from last season. But they returned their 3rd & 4th leading scorers in Chase Hunter and Ian Schieffelin. They also got Chauncey Wiggins back who was a key contributor. And more importantly, they added Viktor Lahkin, a 7’0 Cinci transfer, who’s been one of their best players. He’s made the transition much easier for Clemson this season, after losing PJ Hall. They also added Jayden Zachary from Boston College, who is double digit PPG scorer who is a knock down shooter (career 39.2% 3FGs) So, although both teams lost similar amounts, in terms of production, the Tigers did a much better job replacing guys, and the guys they did return were much better players than the ones UNC got back. Lastly, this is a much more experienced Clemson roster, when you look at it. Chase Hunter, Ian Schieffelin, Viktor Lahkin, and Jayden Zachary are ALL seniors, and all have played over 100 games in college. The next three guys in the rotation in Wiggins, Dylan Hunter, & Jake Heidbreder are all juniors. So this team is highly experienced, and that’s largely why they were able to take down the #2 team in the country in Duke this weekend.
Looking at the matchup, Clemson is the MUCH better shooting team as well. Clemson is 16th in the country in 3 point percentage at 38.6%, while North Carolina is shooting UNDER 33% from beyond the arc, which is good for 234th in the country. North Carolina has just 3 guys currently shooting above 33% from three, while Clemson has 8. Additionally, North Carolina’s 3-point defense is not good; they are 186th in the country in 3FG% defense. The other area I believe Clemson has a distinct advantage tonight is the turnover department. Both teams are very good at not turning the ball over; Clemson’s TO% is 15.6 (59th in Nation), while UNC’s is 15.1% (37th in Nation). However, Clemson is great at forcing TO’s at 19.9% per game (59th), while UNC is 320th in the country in TO% forced. So, while both teams normally take care of the ball, I believe Clemson’s defense will be able to get some of those UNC guard’s to make mistakes. And winning the TO battle will be big tonight.
Here’s the final thing: I made this line Clemson -7.3. The line currently sits -4.5. Usually when I have that big of a differential, I have to dive into it and make sure I didn’t miss something (like an injury or the location or some sort of external factor). The problem here is there is really nothing like that. The only reason I can explain this opening 5.5 and getting bet DOWN is the fact that it’s a tough spot for Clemson. They are coming off a big win over #2 Ranked Duke Saturday afternoon. There was a court storming and everything, and to come back down from that emotional high and have to now get back up for this one is tough. That said, as I mentioned, this is a very veteran group and I think they’ll be good to go. This is UNC’s season essentially; they NEED this Quad 1 win against a ranked team. It would really boost their resumé, while a loss would likely drop them back to a “Next Four Out” Team. Regardless of how important this game is, I still think Clemson at home, and laying way less than my number shows gives good value. Let’s roll with Clemson
Official Pick: Clemson -4.5 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
