College Basketball Best Bet Plus Full Saturday Card (2/17/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 17, 2024 | 2:37 A.M. CST
Note: This IS an OFFICIAL BEST BET that is being given out to my paying clients. This is my top play of the day for my Saturday card. I’m currently on a 10-3 run including a +250 hit. We are up BIG over the course of the season, picking over 64% winners on my Official Rated Plays. If you wish to get ALL of my top, official plays, text me at 210-836-8820 to sign up for an a premium account. You will get access to ALL my plays in real time as I make them. Stop losing today and text me. I’ve been in this business for over a decade and have a proven track record of success. There is only a month left in the season before the tournament starts, so jump on board quick. Enjoy the breakdown and good luck tomorrow in all your wagers!!
Game: #21 Virginia (19-6) vs. Wake Forest (16-8)
Line: Virginia -1.5 | Wake Forest +1.5
Location: Virginia Home Arena (John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA)
Time: 11:00 A.M. CST
Projected Attendance: Sell Out
Virginia
ACC Record: 10-4 (3rd in ACC)
Home Record: 13-1
Home Conference Record: 7-1
Against the Spread: 14-11
ATS Conference Home: 4-2-1
Wake Forest
ACC Record: 8-5 (4th in ACC)
Road Record: 2-6
Road Conference Record: 2-5
Against the Spread: 12-11-1
ATS Conference Road: 2-5
Game Breakdown:
We have an ACC clash between the teams ranked 3rd and 4th in the ACC currently. We have two programs in much different places, both coming in near the top of the conference late in the year. On one hand the Virginia Cavaliers are a team that is nearly an automatic lock to get in the NCAA tournament each season, winning a National Title just 5 seasons ago in 2019. The Demon Deacons on the other hand, are looking to get back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2017. A win at a ranked Virginia team would go a long way in helping seal that tournament birth. Unfortunately for the Deacs, this is an incredibly difficult spot on the road. Let’s dive into why we like the short home favorite in this one.
Virginia is coming off a home loss in conference play, as they dropped one to Pittsburgh on Tuesday night, 63-74. As bad as that loss may seem on the surface, Pittsburgh has surprisingly turned its season around after a dreadful start, and they actually sit 6th in the ACC standings right now. In terms of current form, UVA was playing some outstanding basketball before their loss to the Panthers. The Cavaliers had won 8 games in a row before dropping that game on Tuesday night. It’s also worth noting that Pittsburgh recently went into Cameron Indoor and defeated a Top 10 ranked Duke team on the road. So the Panthers are no stranger to pulling an upset or two. Additionally, in the game against the Panthers, Virginia really didn’t play poorly. They shot 50% from the floor as a team and turned the ball over just 5 times.
The difference in the game against Pittsburgh was the Panthers went absolutely nuclear from the three-point line (14 made threes on 43% shooting), while the Cavaliers couldn’t buy one. Even though Virginia is not a great offensive team, they surprisingly are a very good three point shooting team overall this season. They shoot just under 38% from downtown, which is good for the 19th best mark in the country. In the game against Pittsburgh the Cavaliers shot just 4/14 from deep (28.6%). Going into the Pittsburgh game, Virginia had shot 42.1% from three in home conference games on the season (48/114). It’s highly unlikely that we will see a repeat of Tuesday night from the 19th best three-point shooting team in the country. Isaac Mckneely, Virginia’s second leading scorer (12.5 PPG) shot just 2/6 from downtown. On the season he has shot a staggering 47.5% from three (including the off performance against Pittsburgh), so I like McKneely to get back on track in this one in a big way. He’s been absolutely lights out this year.
Wake Forest is an excellent three-point shooting team in their own right, knocking down 37.3% from behind the arc this season (27th in the country). However in ACC road games, that number drops significantly. They have shot just 29.4% from three on the road in conference, and only two of their seven conference road games have they even shot above 33% from downtown. Wake isn’t totally reliant on the three, but they often find themselves continuing to launch from beyond the arc, even when they aren’t falling. The Demon Deacons take more threes than anyone else in the conference.
Spot:
The matchup in general is a pretty good one for Virginia, but the spot is even better. The last time Virginia lost back-to-back home games was February of 2022. They lost those two games by a combined 5 points, and the back-t0-back losses came in the lone season since 2016 in which Virginia failed to reach the NCAA Tourney (this year they made the NIT). In fact, over the last 7 seasons, Virginia has lost back-to-back games at home just one time (which was that time in 2022. On the other hand we have a Wake Forest that has struggled on the road all season
Their lone wins on the road in ACC play have come against Georgia Tech and Boston College (two of the worst teams in the ACC). The Deacs are just 2-6 on the road overall this season, 2-5 in ACC play on the road, and 2-5 against the spread in those same games. So, we have a team who is elite at home, coming off a home loss in a building they almost NEVER lose two in a row, playing against a team that has had massive struggles on the road this season. All of these things give a strong edge to the Cavaliers of Virginia.
Revenge spot:
This definitely is a big revenge spot for Virginia, as they were demolished by the Demon Deacons earlier this season (19 point victory for Wake). I don’t always love the “revenge” spots late in the season, because sometimes there’s too much stock put into them. However, this Virginia team is miles better than they were when these two teams faced off for the first time this season. On the other hand, I believe Wake’s best basketball is behind them. The Demon Deacons started the season on an 11-3 run, including a 3-0 start to ACC play. However, they are just 5-5 in their last 1o games. In that span all 5 losses have come on the road, and only ONE of their 5 wins in that span came outside of their home building (and that was against Georgia Tech).
PICK:
Overall, this is just a bad spot for the Demon Deacons. It’s a back-to-back road game, while the Hoo’s are playing their second straight home game. As mentioned, the home court advantage for Virginia is massive, and they are playing against a team who has struggled mightily on the road. The Demon Deacons also seriously lack depth on their roster, and it’s very easy to get worn down against this Virginia defense over the course of 40 minutes. The Deacs may keep it close early, but over the course of the full 40 minutes, the Cavaliers are going to pull away. Give me Virginia in this one and let’s lay the 2.5 or 3 points. This line has moved all over the place. It was being offered at ESPN bet at -1.5 for a while on Friday night. It moved as high as -2.5. So shop around for the best number
OFFICIAL PICK: Virginia -1.5 (play to -2)
Units: 2 Units
Additional OFFICIAL Picks: (All 2 Unit Plays)
South Carolina -7 vs. LSU + South Carolina -4 (1st Half) vs. LSU (1 unit on each, 2 Total)
I really like South Carolina in this spot, however I hate laying more than 6 points with teams like South Carolina who struggle to score. Therefore I’m going to play this game two different ways. First we’re going to take South Carolina minus the seven points. LSU is a team that has just struggled this season. They’ve had a few close losses in SEC play, but on the road they have been really bad. Their lone impressive road win in conference was at Texas A&M, who is down this season. South Carolina on the other hand is 13-1 at home this season. They’ve been really tough to beat in general this season (11th in the Net Rankings), but they have been especially good at home. They are also coming off their worst loss of the season, as they dropped one to Auburn on Tuesday night by 40 points. Normally you think a loss to a good team like Auburn could carry a hangover effect, however I believe the Gamecocks are going to forget about that loss pretty quickly. When you lose a game that bad, you usually just throw it out and move on. There’s nothing to dwell on, nothing to be upset about in terms of bad officiating, or an unlucky break. It was just the Gamecocks worst game of the season and Auburn’s best game of the season.
The one reason I am a bit weary to take South Carolina is because of their inability to score at times. They have an outstanding defense, but they go through spurts where they can’t score. I believe they will wear down LSU over the course of 40 minutes, however I think it’s almost impossible for the Gamecocks to not have at least one dominant half. Therefore, instead of just taking the game I am going to take both the first half and the game. I think the Gamecocks have a very good shot to come out and jump all over the Tigers. If they do we will win our first half bet, and we will have a risk free bet on the Gamecocks with an advantage going to half. If they somehow struggle in the first half and don’t cover the 4 points, I believe they will have a good chance of dominating the second half. There is no way LSU is going to cover both of these numbers. So let’s go ONE unit on each of these, TWO units TOTAL on this game.
Illinois -2.5 @ Maryland
This might be the first legitimate road team I’ve taken this entire season, and it could also be the last. The bottom line is this number is COMPLETELY wrong. This number should absolutely be Illinois -5.5. The fact that they are laying just 2.5 here is forcing me to bet them here. The reason Illinois is just a 2.5 point favorite is multi-fold. Number one, winning on the road in the Big 10 this season has been an absolute nightmare, so that is built into the number. Number 2, Maryland beat Illinois the first time these two met in Champagne. And, it was not by a small margin, as the Terrapins won that game by 12 points. Number 3, Illinois has not won at Maryland in over a decade. In fact the last time Maryland dropped one to the Fighting Illini at home was back in 2011. So all of those things combined have been taken into account with this number. The problem with all of that is this Illinois team is significantly different; I actually believe they are one of the best 10 teams in the country. Additionally, this Fighting Illini team is an excellent three-point shooting team on the road. It does not make any difference to them in terms of the location of their games for their shooting percentage from beyond the arc. Second, the fact that Maryland beat Illinois the first time they played this season actually benefits the Illini. This is going to be a revenge game for Illinois in this spot, and this is the type of team that will actually use this as motivation. Lastly, Maryland’s home court advantage is nowhere near what it once was. I just don’t see that advantage making too much of a difference in this game. I do think it will be a tight game, but Illinois should control it throughout and I believe they will end up easily cover the 2.5. Take ILLINOIS in this spot and lay the 2.5.
Colorado State -6 vs. Utah State
This is a simple breakdown. Utah State was the beneficiary of a lot of close wins early in the conference season. There were two games in which Utah State had less than a 10% post-game win expectancy, and they won both games. On the other hand, Colorado State is coming off a brutal loss against San Diego State on the road. The Rams led that game by 14 at halftime and scored just 11 points in the second half. That win would’ve put them in great position to have a shot at a top 5 seed, as well as a conference title. Instead that loss cemented them as a 6 seed at best, and largely ends their hopes of winning the MW regular season. They are going to be eager to come out and redeem themselves for that showing. This Colorado State team overall is SIGNIFICANTLY better than this Utah State team, plus they are playing at home. Utah State is playing much worse basketball than they were earlier in the season. They are also overly reliant on their post player Great Osobor, who has really struggled as of late. His inconsistency will rear it’s head today and the Rams are going to dominate the Aggies. Give me the Rams and lay the 6. Love this spot and this pick
Southern Illinois +4.5 vs. Indiana State
This game is pretty simple. Indiana State started off conference play in the Valley with 13 wins in 14 tries. That led to the team being ranked in the top 25 for the first time since Larry Bird was in school. The problem is it’s a completely different game mentally when you are ranked in the top 25. It’s the same thing when you see a team who isn’t used to being #1 in the country. When they get that ranking they end up losing relatively quickly, because they just aren’t used to having that target on their back. We saw that rear it’s head for the Sycamores against Illinois State the other night where they dropped one at home by double digits to a team at the bottom of the conference. That loss really hurt ISU’s shot at getting in the NCAA Tourney with an at large bid. The issue for them even more-so is now they are going to the toughest venue in the conference. SIU has an extremely underrated home court advantage, and if you follow college basketball closely you’d know how tough it is to play there. That place is going to be absolutely rocking on Saturday night (tip set for 7 P.M. Eastern Time). Additionally, when you’ve had a long winning streak that’s finally broken, the public tends to think that you back the team to bounce back. However, that’s not usually the case. More often what happens is that team on the long winning streak felt like they were unbeatable in that stretch. And now that the streak has been broken, they tend to lose some confidence. This is a TERRIBLE spot for ISU to lose confidence, as the Salukis play a super aggressive, loose style of basketball. I believe this is going to be a very tight game, and I think the Salukis are a real live dog here. In that case, in this spot, we’re taking the points with the home dog in a tough environment to win for opposing teams. Give me the SALUKIS plus the points (+4.5)
Plays Summary:
Top Play: Virginia -1.5
All Other Plays:
South Carolina -4 (1st Half)
South Carolina -7
Illinois -2
Colorado State -6
Southern Illinois +4.5
Best of luck. And if you want all my premium picks, text me at 210-836-8820 or send me an email.
