College Basketball Best Bet (3/13/24)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 13, 2024 | 3:54 P.M. CST

One best bet for tonight’s conference tournaments

Best Bet: Cincinnati -2.5 vs. Kansas

Brief Summary: Cincinnati is not going to knock anyone’s socks off from a talent standpoint. However, they are a gritty team. They trailed yesterday by double digits in the second half to West Virginia and found a way to pull out a win late in the game. They now face Kansas. Kansas comes into this game on probably their worst stretch of basketball in the past decade. Looking at them a month ago this would be shocking, but it really isn’t. Why? Because they have lacked depth all year. So, when injuries occur, it is going to hurt Kansas more than any other team. They will be without two starters going into this matchup. It’s not just two starters though, it’s their two leading scorers in Kevin McCullers and Hunter Dickinson. Without those two guys I really don’t know what this team is. And I think that is why this game is mispriced. Likely Vegas has points associated with these players, so take them away and we arrive at 2.5. But that doesn’t take into account their presence on the court. Not having those two guys makes Kansas incredibly fragile here. They are likely going to be playing some guys who have not played the entire season. Not to mention, the guys off the bench who have played this year are horrible.

It really feels like Bill Self realizes that health is the most important thing right now. If KU isn’t 100% healthy going into the NCAA tournament their odds of getting out of the first weekend is almost 0. Therefore, it feels like the Jayhawks are punting on the conference tournament in an attempt to have one last run in the Big Dance (which is obviously much more important). Beyond that, i question how much Kansas really wants to win this game? Do they really want to risk more injuries the way their season has gone? Playing more games means more wear and tear on Harris (KU’s PG) and he’s battled an ankle injury lately as well. On the other hand Cinci is playing for their lives. They basically have to win the conference tournament to get in the Big Dance. So we are going to get a focused, locked in group in the Bearcats tonight. I’ll happily lay the 2.5 with the healthier, more motivated team. I would play it up to -3

Official Pick: Cincinnati -2.5