College Basketball Best Bet (2/27/25)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 27, 2025 | 5:19 P.M.
Overall Record: 49-22 (69.0%)
Had one of our favorite plays of the year as a winner Tuesday night. No best bets last night. We’re back in action here tonight though, with one strong play. Let’s keep it rolling, as we near the end of the regular season. It’s almost March!!
Best Bet: Wichita State -1 vs. UAB
We’ve backed both of these teams once this season, and both times we’ve gotten W’s. Tonight we’re going back to well with the Shockers, who have been playing SHOCKINGLY well lately (pun intended). College basketball is a weird sport, hence the Madness that comes every March; but, that’s why we love it. That madness is fully on display with this Shockers squad this season. Wichita State started the season off with 6 straight wins, going 10-3 overall in the non-conference. Then conference play hit, and something went terribly wrong for them, as they could not BUY a win for about a month. They started an abysmal 1-7 in AAC play, with their lone win coming at home against Charlotte. At that point, something clicked for this squad. Since that 1-7 start, the Shockers have rattled off 6-straight wins, and they now sit .500 in conference play at 7-7. They miraculously have an opportunity to walk out of Charles Koch arena with a winning record in the AAC, with just 3 games left after tonight’s contest.
UAB, on the other hand, comes into this game tonight just one game back of Memphis for first place in the American in the loss column. What makes this such a good spot for the Shockers beyond the way they have been playing lately, is the fact that UAB has Memphis (the number one team in the AAC) coming into their building Sunday afternoon. That is by far the biggest game of the season for UAB, who lost to the Tigers in their first meeting. Thus, UAB knows that game will have AAC Championship implications. Now, obviously they have to win tonight for that game to be that type of championship matchup. But, this is just a classic look ahead spot. It’s not that they will take the Shockers lightly. When you see a team has won 6-straight, and you are traveling on the road, you can believe head coach Andy Kennedy is going to be preaching to his guys that they can’t overlook this game. But it’s only human nature for kids 18-23 to have that Memphis game in the back of their minds as Sunday approaches.
Wichita State comes in with all the confidence in the world. They beat Memphis in their home building last weekend, in front of a ruckus crowd. They know they can play spoiler to UAB’s AAC Championship aspirations, and they fully believe they are capable of doing it. Looking at this specific matchup, Wichita State is definitely a defensive team. And, while their season long metrics have them as an above average group, they have been ELITE on that side of the ball recently, ESPECIALLY at home. In their last 4 home games, the Shockers are allowing teams to shoot 44.5% effective FG% & 28.6% 3FG%. Those would currently both rank 4th in the COUNTRY in each respective category if you extrapolate that out for the entire season. UAB is definitely a better offensive team than Wichita State, however they are nowhere near elite shooting the ball. They are outside the top 135 in both 2FG% and 3FG%. The area they are elite is taking care of the ball (14th in TO%) and Offensive Rebounding (4th in ORB%). But, Wichita State is solid at not allowing ORBs (top 90 in nation in ORB% allowed). As a whole, the Shockers are an excellent rebounding team. Over this win streak, Wichita State is a +74 in rebounding, out-boarding their opponents by an average of 12.3 rebounds per game. They’ve also allowed just 9 ORBs per game over that same stretch. Now, they did give up 16 ORBs to Memphis last week. However, they also snagged 19 ORBs themselves in that game. So even when they have given up a lot of ORBs, they still find a way to create an advantage on the glass overall.
With all of that in mind, the number here is short. It’s taking into account WSU’s entire season more than the way they’ve played over the past month. I made this number Wichita State -3.7 and we are currently sitting -1. There’s decent value here, with a team playing just as good, if not better at home, facing a team in a big lookahead spot. Let’s back the Shockers here and lay the point for our best bet tonight.
Official Pick: Wichita State -1 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
