College Basketball Best Bet (2/19/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | February 19, 2024 | 12:21 A.M. CST
Game: Virginia Cavaliers @ Virginia Tech Hokies
Line: Virginia Tech -3 (-110) | Virginia +3 (-110)
Location: Virginia Tech Home Gymnasium
Time: 7:00 P.M. CST
Summary:
If you want to watch some ugly basketball, do yourself a favor and turn on a Virginia men’s basketball game. On Saturday morning the Cavaliers of Virginia faced off against one of the best offenses in the country in the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. The total combined points scored in the game? 96. Yup, that’s right, they scored less than 100 combined points. Calling it a defensive slugfest would be a massive understatement. Still, the Cavaliers were able to find a way to win the game despite failing to reach the half century mark offensively. One big reason for that was UVA’s performance at the free throw line. The Cavaliers shot an abysmal 1/11 from the charity stripe, good for less than 10%. This included missing 5 of their final 6 in the final minute of the game, which gave the Demon Deacons multiple chances to get out of Virginia with a win. Luckily for the Hoo’s, the one thing they do have is an elite defense, and they really were forced to lean on it on Saturday.
Despite the lack of offensive prowess, the Cavaliers once again find themselves right in the thick of things for an ACC regular season title, just one game behind both Duke and North Carolina in the loss column with 5 conference games left to play. Somehow, someway, every single year, Tony Bennett has his team playing well at the end of the regular season. Now that doesn’t always translate to success in March (minus 2019), but you do have to give him some credit for always finding a way to have his team in the hunt for a title in what is usually one of the best conferences in the country (although not this year).
Virginia Tech on the other hand, has really struggled to find consistency this season, especially in conference play. Since the beginning of ACC play, the Hokies have only strung together back-to-back wins ONCE. That stretch was a three-game winning streak in which they came away with victories over NC State, Boston College, and Georgia Tech, two of which are at the bottom of the conference standings. Since that win over GT, the Hokies are just 1-4, with their lone win coming against Florida State at home last week.
All that said, this team is still a relatively talented bunch. Over the course of the season they have wins at home over Boise State, #10 Iowa State, and #21 Clemson. When looking at their performance on their home court this year, it has actually been quite good. The Hokies lone loss to a non-ranked team at home this season came against the Miami Hurricanes about 5 weeks ago. Even that loss wouldn’t qualify as bad, with the Hurricanes having such an up and down season, but still having a core group of guys that made an Elite 8 Run just last season. With that in mind, I think this is a really good spot for VT.
From an outsiders perspective, it looks unlikely that VT is going to make the NCAA tournament this year, a place they’ve become accustomed to going over the last half-decade. That said, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. They have 5 games left, probably only two games that will be possible quad 1 wins for them. Oddly enough, this game against a ranked Virginia team is NOT going to be a Quad 1 game, as the Hokies are outside the top 30 in the Net Ranking (42). However, with two road games against top 70 teams on deck, the Hokies are going to have some opportunities to get some Q1 wins, but they won’t matter if they drop this one to Virginia. Another Q2 loss on the resume, dropping to 14-12, and 6-9 in conference would all but eliminate them from NCAA tourney contention (at least an at large bid). The Hokies are well aware of this. Their backs are absolutely against the wall in this matchup, and they know how big this game is.
The second part of this matchup is that UVA beat VT the first time they played, and that was on UVA’s home court. Blacksburg is a different story. Virginia has really struggled on the road under Tony Bennett the last two seasons, and that includes this season. Despite the fact that UVA has played slightly better away from home lately, none of those wins were against a team in the Net Top 30. The road wins for the Hoo’s came at Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Louisville, and Clemson. That’s the bottom three and a Clemson team that has been horrific at home this season. Thus, this trip to Blacksburg is going to be a completely different animal for the Hoo’s.
Lastly comes the actual matchup. Virginia is one of the worst offensive teams in the country, but one of the best defensive teams in the country. VT is the complete opposite; they carry an explosive and highly efficient offense, but really struggle on the defensive side. The reason that this matchup favors VT though is because of that offensive power. UVA relies on a pack-line defense that makes it extremely difficult to get into the lane and score in the paint. They force you to shoot contested threes from the perimeter. The problem is that VT is a very good shooting team. They have the style and the roster to be able to break down the UVA defense. On the otherside, the thing that VT really struggles with defensively more than anything is defending post players. They got absolutely eaten alive against UNC on Saturday by big man Armando Bacott. In fact they’ve gotten eaten alive by anyone with a real post presence all season. The good news for the Hokies is Virginia has no real post threat. They rely heavily on their veteran guards in Reece Beekman and Isaac McKneely. Ryan Dunn is more of a forward, and their only true seven foot post man from last season transferred to Texas. So they have nobody who is going to give UVA big problems inside.
For all of those reasons I really like VT in this spot. I would really try to get to this number as fast as possible. If it gets any higher than 3 I would pass on it. The value is definitely there at -2, -2.5. I would be okay taking -3 but nothing higher.
Official Pick: VIRGINIA TECH -2 (-110)
