Author: Dylan Lieck | May 21, 2024 | 5:54 P.M. CST
Best Bets:
Pacers 1st Half Team Total OVER 54.5 (-110)
Celtics 1st Half Team Total OVER 59.5 (-115)
Summary:
On my official releases AND my personal smaller plays, I’ve hit 8 in a row on these 1st half team total overs in the first half so far in the playoffs. Essentially, the oddsmakers have been slow to catch on to these teams scoring MORE in the first half than they do in the second half. In the series against the Heat in Round 1, the oddsmakers eventually did adjust and we saw larger totals in the first half for the team totals than we did in the second half, which is very abnormal for NBA games. However, it was clear that the Celtics had trouble scoring in the 4th quarter and often they were up so much that it really didn’t matter. Although in this game we do see a higher total in the first half than in the second half, it’s only a difference of 3.5 points (1st half total is 113.5 and game total is 223.5). Also the number overall just feels very short.
This series sets up for a very high pace. I have a very good feeling that by games 3 & 4 the totals we are currently seeing are going to be significantly higher. We’ve seen that with the Pacers in EVERY series so far. And there’s no reason to think it will change here. In fact it might be more dramatic in this series, because this Celtics team is better equipped to exploit the Pacers horrific defense than any of their previous opponents. This Celtics team is extremely high powered offensively, and they are very balanced. Any of their starters (when Porzingis is healthy) have the ability to go for 20+ on a given night. Even with Horford, we have 4 prolific scorers, and one guy who can knock down catch & shoot threes. So I see the Celtics having tons of offensive success here.
On the other side I think Porzingis being out is HUGE concern for the Celtics defensively. We saw it in the Cavs series, where they were able to get Horford switched onto Donavan Mitchell on ball screens, and Mitchell absloutely torched him. Draymond Green brought this up when filling in on TNT one night and even asked Jason Tatum about it. Joe Mazzulla is the last guy you want having to make adjustments, because he just refuses to do so. Therefore, if I’m right and the Pacers ARE able to exploit Horford, I don’t believe we are going to see the Celtics do anything different to combat it. MAYBE we do as the series goes on, assuming the Pacers do have success with that. But in a one game sample, he’s shown a lack of ability to adjust in his short coaching career. I have enough concerns with Horford having to guard Myles Turner or Pascal Siakam 1v1 in his actual matchup. If the Pacers abuse the ball screen with Haliburton, McConnell, and Nembhardt, we could see a massive offensive night (and series) from the Pacers. They are so bad defensively that I don’t think they can win this series. In fact, I believe the Celtics will win in 5 games. But I do think they will have offensive success, at least early in the series.
Now, we could just play the first half total over, and we will probably be okay. However, I’m a bit worried that one of two things could happen. One is the Celtics have been off for an extended period of time. They have not showed any signs of slowing down after long rest so far, but I am always hesitant with this Celtics team specifically, since they are so reliant on threes. Secondly, the Pacers do tend to have some stinkers in the first half of road games at times in the playoffs. I estimate a very low probability that BOTH will happen, therefore I believe taking both will give us a decent shot at hitting both plays. And worst case scenario we win one, lose one, and we lose just a small amount of juice. Therefore, I think it’s worth it to take BOTH of their team totals over. It’s lower risk, higher reward in my opinion.
Therefore, let’s take both team totals over for 1 unit each
Official Picks: Pacers Team Total OVER 54.5 (-110) = 1 Unit + Celtics Team Total OVER 59.5 (-115) = 1 Unit
