Rams and Saints Battle For Playoff Spot on Thursday Night
Author: Dylan Lieck | Dec. 21, 2023 | 6:40 P.M. CST
Thursday Night Football:
Game: New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams
Line: Rams -3.5
Total: 46
Location: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, California
Kickoff Time: 7:15 P.M. CST
Weather: N/A (Dome)
There is a HUGE game on deck tonight between the Los Angeles Rams and the New Orleans Saints, with big time playoff implications on the line. Both teams come into this game on a bit of a hot streak. The Rams dominated the Washington Commanders last week, forcing Ron Rivera to bench their starting QB Sam Howell. The Rams have won 4 of their last 5, with their lone loss the past five games coming against the #1 seed in the AFC, the Baltimore Ravens in overtime. The Saints on the other side have bounced back following a three game losing streak & won two in row. Unfortunately for Saints fans, those games came against the New York Giants and the Carolina Panthers, and both of those games were at home. They did play a tight game against a solid Detroit Lions team a few weeks ago, only falling by five points, however they did trail in that game by as many as 21 points. Let’s dive into the matchup tonight and see how has an edge, as well as the playoff ramifications for tonight’s game.
Matchup:
The New Orleans Saints come into this game with a top 10 defense according to Pro Football Focus. They’re 7th in overall efficiency, 6th in yards per pass allowed, and 6th in PPG allowed at less than 20 points per game. Should be a tough matchup for the Rams offense right? Not quite. The Saints have played one of the easiest schedules of offenses this season, and it’s been even worse the past couple of weeks. The last 6 games here are the quarterbacks the Saints defense has faced: Tommy Devito, Bryce Young, Jared Goff, Desmond Ridder, Josh Dobbs, and Tyler Bagent. With the exception of Jared Goff, there is not a single QB of that bunch that you could argue is a legitimate starting QB in this league. Three of the six are not even currently starting for their respective teams (Dobbs, Ridder, & Bagent). Another is a third string QB who has been forced into action, in Devito, and Bryce Young has looked anything but a starting QB this year. The lone decent QB the Saints have faced in the past two months is Jared Goff, and Goff came into that game having 6 Turnovers in his previous two games, and the Lions were really struggling offensively. That offense, who was playing nowhere close to their peak this season, put up 33 on New Orleans, and started the game with three straight touchdown drives.
The Rams offense on the other side, has been trending one way, and that’s up. They’ve been outstanding the past two months in the pass game with Cooper Kupp finally healthy and Puka Nakua continuing his elite play. The Rams actually are trending near a top five offense currently, which is wild considering their projections at the start of the season. When Stafford has been kept clean in the pocket, he’s been the most effective QB in the national football league. That bodes very well for Stafford and Los Angeles as the Saints have really struggled to generate consistent pressure the past month, despite playing a very poor schedule of opposing offenses. The Rams offense as a whole is averaging 34.5 PPG in their last four outings, scoring at least 28 points per game in all 4 games, and at least 30 in 3 of the 4. What’s even more impressive is the fact that two of those games have come against two of the league’s top defenses in the Cleveland Browns and the Baltimore Ravens. Against the Ravens two weeks ago, in weather, the Rams put up 31 points and Stafford threw four touchdowns. Now the Rams are stepping WAY down in class here against the Saints. They are also playing at home, a place they’ve traditionally had lots of offensive success. I think it’s clear here that the Rams are going to be able to have some significant success moving the ball against this Saints defense. That makes sense from what we’ve seen in the market, as we had a total open at 44, and it has now ticked up as high as 46.5.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams defense has been mediocre this season, which as as to be expected considering the age of some of their stars as well as some of the key departures from last season (Jalen Ramsey). However, they are facing one of the worst offenses in football tonight. The Saints have been abismal with Derek Carr behind center, and it showed last week despite the scoreboard. The Saints offense was outgained by the Carolina Panthers offense by over 100 yards. They have struggled to consistently move the ball with Carr. Now, they will get back a key cog in Chris Olave tonight which should help their cause. But, I’m not quite sure how much success this team is going to have. I believe they will be able to put up some points and get this total over, but I don’t think they have enough in the tank to actually win this game. The best thing they could tonight would be to lean on Alvin Kamara who has looked very good at times this season. If they go away from Kamara and try to throw the ball 60%+ they are going to really struggle offensively tonight.
Playoff Implications
This is MASSIVE game in the grand scheme of the NFC Playoff picture, and the loser of this game tonight will be in a very tough spot. Both teams come in 7-7, with the Rams currently clinging to that final playoff spot. The Seahawks and Vikings also enter this week 7-7, as do the Tampa Bay Bucs who currently lead the NFC North due to their head-to-head win over the Saints earlier in the season.
Los Angeles Rams:
If the Rams are able to win tonight, they would put themselves in prime position to get into the playoffs. Next week the Rams get to travel to New York to take on the Giants, a game in which we will likely see LA close around a touchdown favorite (possibly even more depending on the outcome tonight as well as the Giants this week). The final week they take on the San Francisco 49ers, and while you might think that is going to be a very tough matchup, that isn’t necissarily true. The 49ers currently hold the #1 overall seed in the NFC, and if they are able to take care of the Ravens this week at home, there is a very good chance they will have clinched that top seed going into the final week. I’d be surprised if we see the starters for San Fran play the entirety of that game (if at all) against the Rams in week 18 IF they are able to capture that #1 overall seed going into the final week. A win for the Rams tonight would place them a game ahead of the Saints in the loss column, plus they would hold the tiebreaker over the Saints if the two were to finish with the same record. Additionally, the Rams hold the tiebreaker over the 7-7 Seattle Seahawks. So you’d be in a great position if your an LA fan with a win tonight
On the other hand a loss could prove catostrophic. Not only would the Rams drop out of the final wild card spot with a loss tonight, but they’d now be a game and a half behind the Saints with just two games remaining. They would also drop behind the Seattle Seahawks if they were able to win this week. All the sudden what looks like a great shot to make the playoffs would be in severe jeopardy with a loss.
New Orleans Saints:
This game is massive for the Saints playoff hopes. If they were to drop this game tonight, they essentially would be relying on not only winning their last two games against divisional opponents, but also hoping that the Buccaneers drop 2 of their last 3, as the Bucs would own the tiebreaker based on conference record if both teams were to finish with the same record (assuming the Saints lose tonight, they would lose that tiebreaker). Thus, this is pretty much the Saints season here.
If the Saints were to win tonight, they would not only jump the Rams and launch themselves into that 7th playoff spot, but they’d also have a legitimate shot at the division. The Saints know if they win out, they are in the playoffs as they would be the divisional champ (winning out and beating the Bucs & Falcons would guarantee the division title). It’s hard to believe this version of the New Orleans Saints is going to win 5 in a row to close the season, especially with 2 of their final 3 coming on the road. That said, they have everything in front of them.
Pick:
Overall this is a de-facto elimination game tonight. That’s not to say that either team would be close to being mathematically eliminated with a loss. But, the winner of this game is likely going to have an 80%+ chance to make the playoffs, and the loser is going to be 25% or less to get in. So both teams should be treating this one like it’s their Super Bowl. I do think this is going to be a competitve game, only because we are going to get both teams best efforts. However, the Rams best effort is going to be too much for the Saints on the road, stepping up in class here. It’s pretty simple: You have Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay vs. Derek Carr and Dennis Allen. I’ll take Stafford and McVay every day of the week, and twice on Sunday. It’'ll be close early, but look for the Rams to run away with it late.
Prediction: Rams 34, Saints 20
