Why the Dallas Mavericks Will Win the NBA Title

Author: Dylan Lieck | June 5th, 2024 | 1:21 A.M. CST

Dallas’ Road to Success:

A few days prior to the NBA trade deadline, the Dallas Mavericks sat at 26-23, just 3 games above .500, flirting with the possibility of being in a play-in game or missing the playoffs entirely if they were to continue down the path they were on. It was at that point that Mavericks GM, Nico Harrison, orchestrated two trades that would alter the course of the Mavericks season, and possibly their franchise history. The first key move included the addition of a 6’10 rim protector in Daniel Gafford via a trade with the Washington Wizards. The Mavericks sent forward Richaun Holmes and a 2024 1st round draft pick to the Washington Wizards in exchange for Gafford, who was a 2019 second round pick out of Arkansas. Gafford spent his first season and a half with the Chicago Bulls, before being dealt to the Wizards, where he spent the next four seasons.

The second move was the addition of P.J. Washington from the Charlotte Hornets. The trade with Charlotte was similar to the one with Washington in that both included the Mavs dealing away future first round picks in exchange for “win now” guys. The Mavs sent Grant Williams, Seth Curry, and a 2027 first round pick (top 2 protected) to the Hornets in exchange for Walker. Regardless of what those around the league thought about the value of the trades at the time, the theory behind the trades initiated by Harrison and the Mavs front office was clear: we are trying to win right now.

And, that’s exactly what they did. Following the acquisitions of both Gafford and Washington, the Mavericks quickly became one of the hottest teams in the league. They rattled off three separate win streaks of at least five games after the trades, losing just nine total games post-trade deadline, and two of those losses included games in which the Mavs sat all of their starters (the final two games of the regular season).

Mav’s Post-Season Run:

The post-season for the Mavericks has been very similar to the end of the regular season: filled with lots of success. Despite not having home-court advantage in any of their first three series, the Mavs were able to win all three series without even facing a game 7. They disposed of the Los Angeles Clippers in six games in the first round, which included a win on the road in game 5 when the series was tied up at 2-2. They followed that series up by taking out the number one seed in the Western Conference, the Oklahoma City Thunder, in identical fashion to their first round series victory (winning games 2, 3, 5, & 6). They capped off their run through the west by not just beating the Minnesota Timberwolves, but utterly dismantling them. The Mavs won that series in just 5 games, and went a perfect 3-0 on Minnesota’s home floor.

Some of the numbers are pretty staggering for a team that came into the playoffs as a 5-seed. The Mavs have yet two lose back-to-back games the entire playoffs. As mentioned previously, they have won three consecutive series without having home court advantage. They’ve won two decisive game 5’s on the road in series’ tied 2-2. And on the road in the playoffs as a whole, Dallas is 7-2, despite facing some of the toughest teams in the league in their 3 series.

Boston Celtics Only Team Standing in Way of Doncic & Mavs:

Now, there is only one team remaining, standing in the way of the Mavericks and their second ever NBA Title in franchise history: the Boston Celtics. The Celtics have been the best team in basketball over the entirety of this season, and it hasn’t been close. In fact, their offensive efficiency over the course of the regular season was historic, and they used that firepower to cruise through the regular season with 64 wins, claiming the number one overall seed in the East as well as home-court advantage throughout the entire NBA Playoffs. Once the playoffs began, it wasn’t much different from the regular season, at least from an outcome perspective. During this run through the East Boston has dropped just two games, winning the first two series in five games and their last series in four.

Oddly enough though, the Mavericks have really looked like the more impressive team throughout the first three rounds of the playoffs. Sure, the Celtics have the better overall record through the conference finals (Boston: 12-2, Dallas 12-5), however the competition each team faced was drastically different. The Celtics road was quite possibly the easiest road to the NBA Finals this century. In the first round they got to face the Miami Heat (the 8-seed in the East) without two of their top four players. The Heat were without their star player (and leading scorer) Jimmy Butler, as well as their starting point guard Terry Rozier, who was acquired by Miami last off-season (4th leading scorer on the team). Despite the significant injuries endured by Miami, the Celtics were still unable to sweep the Heat, dropping game 2 at home by double digits. They followed up that series facing off against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who had a number of injuries themselves. The Cavs were without starting Center Jarrett Allen for the entirety of the series. Despite Allen not being available, the Cavs were able to steal game 2 in Boston and make it a 1-1 series heading back to Cleveland for game 3. Boston was able to run away with game 3 late, although the game was tight for a large portion of the night. Once again though, the Celtics caught a big break: star guard Donavan Mitchell (leading scorer for Cavs) suffered an injury and was lost for the remainder of the series. The Celtics would go onto win games 4 and 5 and close out the series. However, both games were tight (one in Cleveland and one in Boston) even with Mitchell and Allen sidelined.

Boston then entered the Eastern Conference Finals, where they finally faced off against a fully healthy team. However, that team was the six seed Indiana Pacers, who were only in the Eastern Conference Finals due to the fact that they had played two significantly banged up teams. It’s very likely that a healthy Milwaukee Bucks team would have disposed of Indiana in round one; and, it’s an almost certainty that the New York Knicks would’ve taken out Indiana after going up 2-0 in the series, had O.G. Anunoby not been sidelined with a hamstring injury. Despite the fact that Indiana was fortunate to be in this series at all, and despite the fact that Boston was a near 10 to 1 favorite to win the series, winning the east was anything but easy for the Celtics. Not only is the 4-0 sweep of the series deceiving, it’s darn near unreal that it played out that way. Game one alone was one of the crazier endings to any playoff game ever. Indiana had the ball up three with under ten seconds to play, just needing to inbound the ball and make one free throw. But a Pacer turnover on the inbounds, a Pacers’ defensive mistake on the ensuing Boston inbounds, and an improbable corner three pointer made by Jalen Brown somehow allowed the Celtics to force overtime and eventually win the game. But make no mistake about it, Boston did not win that game. They played horrible and deserved to lose and got absolutely bailed out. They did win game two with relative ease, but Indiana lost Tyrese Haliburton (All-NBA 3rd Team) late in that game to a hamstring injury. Despite Haliburton not playing in games 3 and 4, Boston very well could’ve (and probably should’ve) lost both of those games. Game 3 the Pacers led by six with under two minutes remaining, with the ball before absolutely collapsing. Then in game 4, the Pacers led by four with less than three and a half minutes to go, and found a way to lose that game as well. Thus, although Boston swept Indiana, when you really look at how those games played out, it’s almost impossible to believe that Indiana didn’t win one or two of those games. And it’s a fair statement to say that the Celtics probably should have been down 1-3 going into a game 5 in that series, based on the way the games played out.

So why should this series be any different for Boston? The only differences from the first three rounds of the playoffs and now is that the moment is bigger and the opponent is better. Boston has shown exactly who they are throughout the course of this playoffs, just like they have in the past half decade with this core. Yes, Tatum, Brown, and the Celtics have been in the NBA Finals before, but they did not show well, despite the fact that they were nearly 2 to 1 favorites to win the title over the Golden State Warriors (lost the series 4-2). They are almost identical in odds now to a Dallas Mavericks team who will easily be the best, most talented team they’ve played these playoffs.

Prediction:

It’s clear Boston is going to have at least one game in this series where they just play really poorly, don’t shoot the ball well, and allow their opponent to win the game relatively easily. It’s likely going to be early in the series, and it’s likely going to be at home (both of which go hand-in-hand). In fact, if you faded the Celtics at home on the moneyline over the past three post-seasons, you would be up over 35 units. The C’s have shown more than a propensity to lose one of the first two games at home in a series: it’s actually almost a certainty that it will happen. In fact, before the Indiana series (which Boston DID give a game away, but somehow didn’t lose), the Celtics had played 8 consecutive series without sweeping an opponent, despite the fact that they were one of the highest seeds in a very weak Eastern Conference each of the past 3 seasons. Additionally, prior to the 2024 ECF’s, only one time in their previous 8 playoff series did the Celtics win both of their first two home games of a playoff series (last year round one against Atlanta).

Therefore, we can assume that at worst Dallas is going back home for games three and four tied at one game a piece. Now I will concede that I do not believe the Mavericks will win both the first two games in Boston. However, I would be more surprised if Boston won both game one and game two, than if Dallas were to steal both on the road, the way they did against Minnesota in the Western Conference Finals. We also know that Dallas has not lost consecutive games this entire post-season, and for Boston to win this series quickly, they’d have to break that streak. It is true that Boston is 6-0 on the road in this post-season, but only ONE of those wins came against a team who had their leading scorer playing. I mention all of this to make the point that I would be shocked if this series played out any worse for Dallas than being tied 2-2 after the first four games.

So we likely will see this series go six or seven games. As mentioned numerous times above, Dallas has been battle-tested throughout these playoffs. They have had to beat some of the best teams in the NBA to get here, and they’ve had to win in hostile environments as well. Every single time Dallas has been put in a spot where they need to step up and make a play, or make a shot, or win a game, they have responded by doing so. The same can’t be said for Boston. Not only have they not been tested, but Jayson Tatum has historically had issues in crunch time. While the Mavs have probably the most clutch player the league has seen in a long time, who has shown his ability to do it in the playoffs on the biggest stages in the biggest moments. Therefore, when it comes down to it, and we get to a game 6 in Dallas or a game 7 in Boston, and it comes down to Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving against Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, I’m rolling with Luka and the Mavs every day of the week.

I think the Mavericks are more than live in this series, and I truly believe they are going to take down the Celtics and win the NBA Title.

Official Prediction: Mavs in 6 (BOS-DAL-DAL-BOS-DAL-DAL)

For a more in depth breakdown of the X’s and O’s in this series, check out my article “How the Mavericks Ball Screen Offense Can EXPLOIT the Celtics Defense”